Analysts disagree on which quarterback will be selected third in 2026 NFL Draft

Barring what would be a downright stunning development, Fernando Mendoza of the Indiana Hoosiers and Ty Simpson of the Alabama Crimson Tide will be the first two quarterbacks selected during the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Which quarterback is drafted third is more of a mystery heading into the first weekend of April. 

Is QB3 debate down to Garrett Nussmeier vs. Carson Beck?

For an article published on Friday, ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller named LSU Tigers star Garrett Nussmeier the draft's QB3. 

"Nussmeier has impressed in the predraft process now that he's healthy from an abdominal injury suffered before the 2025 season," Miller wrote. "Going back to the 2024 tape, Nussmeier ranked fifth in the FBS with 4,052 yards; he threw 29 touchdowns to 12 picks. And he was cutting down on his interceptions in 2025 before being shut down for the season after nine games. The 6-foot-2, 203-pound quarterback lacks elite measurables, but his instincts, accuracy and high ball velocity are traits teams can build around."

Back on March 1, ESPN's Jordan Reid shared that scouts he talked to around that time had Miami's Carson Beck ranked third among the quarterback prospects in this year's class. For Friday's piece, ESPN's Field Yates agreed with that assessment. 

"He has a natural throwing ability (69.5% career completion percentage) and plenty of experience (43 starts)," Yates said about Beck. "Scouts are extremely impressed with his overall acumen as a player. Plus, Beck has very good size (6-foot-5, 233 pounds) and handled the pressure of starting at two high-profile colleges."

When could Garrett Nussmeier, Carson Beck be drafted and by what teams?

Mock drafts updated this week have predicted that a team such as the New York Jets will be able to acquire Simpson during the draft's second round. Such a slide could result in a domino effect for the likes of Nussmeier and Beck. 

That said, Miller thinks Nussmeier "should come off the board at some point on Day 2." Yates believes Beck will "go in the third round." 

The Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals are among the teams that could take a flier on either Nussmeier or Beck. The Steelers have to begin preparing for life after Aaron Rodgers at some point, while the Rams seem to understand that Matthew Stafford won't play forever. Meanwhile, the Cardinals currently have no long-term quarterback on their roster.