How did they do? Grading 2026 mock drafts from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., three other experts

Predicting every pick of the first round of the NFL Draft is impossible. Look at the 2026 class. 

Who thought the Los Angeles Rams would take Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson with pick No. 13? And who saw Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Arvell Reese sliding to the New York Giants at No. 5? 

Many of the "experts" clearly didn't. With that in mind, here's a look at how four of the top analysts fared in their first-round mocks: 

Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN | Link to final mock draft  

Number of picks correct: Four

• Las Vegas Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza 
• New York Jets, Texas Tech Red Raiders LB David Bailey
• New York Giants, Miami Hurricanes OT Francis Mauigoa
• Seattle Seahawks, Notre Dame Fighting Irish RB Jadarian Price 

Kiper — who has served as an ESPN NFL Draft analyst since 1984 — has become synonymous with the network's coverage of the three-day event. The accuracy of his mocks, however, has long been criticized ... and for good reason. 

In 2025, he predicted the New Orleans Saints would select QB Shedeur Sanders with pick No. 9. The former Colorado Buffaloes star fell to the Cleveland Browns at pick No. 144 in the fifth round in a stunning slide. 

Kiper's biggest miss in 2026 was having the Browns take Tennessee Volunteers corner Jermod McCoy with pick No. 24. The DB fell to the Raiders at pick No. 101 in the fourth round because of a knee issue that may require surgery. | Grade: C

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Media | Link to final mock draft

Number of picks correct: Three 

• Raiders, Mendoza
• Jets, Bailey
• Browns, Texas A&M Aggies WR KC Concepcion 

Jeremiah — a former scout for the Philadelphia Eagles, Browns and Baltimore Ravens — is considered one of the more accurate mock drafters. Per The Huddle Report, a site that has tracked the accuracy of mock drafts since 2002, his average score of 42.4 over the past five years ranks No. 8 among 91 eligible draftniks. The scoring system gives mock drafts one point for players in the first round and two for a team-player match.

But trades ultimately derailed Jeremiah's 2026 mock. He didn't anticipate the Dallas Cowboys trading up from pick No. 12 to pick No. 11 with the Miami Dolphins to grab Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, nor did he forecast the team trading down from pick No. 20 to pick No. 23 with NFC East rival Philadelphia to select Central Florida Knights defensive end Malachi Lawrence.  

In his mock, he had the Cowboys correctly adding both players but didn't include a trade, so it doesn't count. He also wrote correctly that the Cleveland Browns would take Utah Utes OT Spencer Fano (pick No. 6) and the Kansas City Chiefs would select LSU Tigers CB Mansoor Delane (pick No. 9), but both teams swapped those selections during the draft.  

We're not counting Jeremiah predicting that the Jets would take Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. with pick No. 16, either. The Jets drafted the WR but with pick No. 30 instead. | Grade: C

Todd McShay, The Ringer | Link to final mock draft 

Number of picks correct: Seven

• Raiders, Mendoza
• Jets, Bailey 
• Giants, Mauigoa
• Rams, Simpson
• Ravens, Penn State Nittany Lions guard Olaivavega Ioane
• Detroit Lions, Clemson Tigers OT Blake Miller
• Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona State Sun Devils OT Max Iheanachor 

Of the mock drafts we chose, McShay's is the only one that featured the Rams' pick of Simpson, so kudos to him for that. The Lions taking Miller was another good call. Having Ohio State WR Carnell Tate fall to the Jets at pick No. 16 wasn't. 

The Tennessee Titans selected Tate with pick No. 4. McShay had reported the Buckeyes standout could be a top-five pick, so why didn't he trust his intel? 

Another questionable choice was predicting the Houston Texans would take Clemson DE T.J. Parker with pick No. 28. The Buffalo Bills picked the Tigers defender in the second round with pick No. 35. NFL Mock Draft Database projected him as a second-rounder after he had a career-low five sacks last season. | Grade: B- 

Dane Brugler, The Athletic | Link to final mock draft 

Number of picks correct: Seven

• Raiders, Mendoza
• Arizona Cardinals, Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
• Saints, Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson 
• Giants, Mauigoa
• Ravens, Ioane
• Carolina Panthers, Georgia Bulldogs OT Monroe Freeling
• Browns, Concepcion

Brugler clearly believed the Love-Cardinals rumors weren't just smoke, and his pick proved correct. The Cardinals made Love the first RB to go No. 3 overall or higher since the New York Giants selected RB Saquon Barkley (now with the Eagles) with pick No. 2 in 2018. 

He also realized the Saints wanted to give second-year QB Tyler Shough another weapon, despite injury concerns surrounding Tyson. The WR missed 17 games because of knee, hamstring and collarbone issues in four seasons at Colorado and Arizona State. He earned two first-team All-Big 12 nods, however, which made the team feel he was worth the risk.

Brugler almost predicted that the Houston Texans would select Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald. He had the AFC South team picking him at No. 28, but he fell to the club at pick No. 36 in the second round. | Grade: B-