Texas Longhorns News

Home

Quizzes

Newsletter

Power Rankings

What's the one thing Manning must improve to prove he's a No. 1 pick?

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Add us as a preferred source on Google

What's the one thing Texas QB Arch Manning must improve to prove he's worthy of No. 1 pick in 2027 NFL Draft?

By Clark Dalton | Last updated May 6, 2026 2:19 PM ET

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Many mocks are predicting Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning will go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Not all league executives, however, are buying the hype after a so-so first season as a full-time starter in 2025.

To show his skeptics he's worthy of the top selection, the QB must better one glaring weakness in his game: accuracy.

Why Arch Manning's accuracy has room for improvement

Manning (6-foot-4, 219 pounds) has completed 311-of-499 passes (62.3 percent) in three seasons at Texas. That's not terrible, but NFL teams want that number to be much higher if they're considering using a No. 1 pick on a QB.

Take a look at the collegiate completion percentages of the past three QBs taken No. 1 overall on the chart below. All completed more than 65 percent of their passes at the FBS level.

QB	Completion percentage
Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza (2026)	691-of-1,008 attempts (68.6 percent)
Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward (2025)	948-of-1,436 attempts (66 percent)
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (2024)	735-of-1,099 attempts (66.9 percent)

"You can't be at 60 percent if you're gonna be the No. 1 pick," ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. said on "The First Draft" podcast Tuesday (h/t On3's Steve Samra). "You've got to be up around 70 percent."

Now, Manning's pass-catchers contributed to some of his problems in 2025. Pro Football Focus credited Texas with 22 drops last season. James Foster, a former draft analyst for The 33rd Team, posted a montage of them on X on April 29.

pic.twitter.com/4ZMHqtGKzC
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) April 29, 2026

An 84th-ranked rushing attack (137.8 yards per game) took away play-action passing opportunities for Manning, in which he excels. Per PFF, he completed 104-of-158 play-action passing attempts (65.3 percent) in 2025, compared to 144-of-250 non-play-action passes (57.6 percent).

Texas hit the transfer portal to address both problems, landing wide receiver Cam Coleman and running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers. Those additions, though, can't fix Manning's wonky throwing motion.

Manning's passing mechanics were heavily scrutinized last season, so much so that it led to speculation that his right shoulder may be hurt. Note: Manning underwent left-foot surgery this offseason. The injury may have impacted his motion. The left foot must first strike the ground before throwing for right-handed QBs.

The 33rd Team's Steve Palazzolo pointed out Manning's left [front] side when discussing his accuracy on his podcast with Sam Monson on Tuesday.

"I still don't think he's throw-for-throw accurate," Palazzolo said. "I think his ball placement is all over the place ... and I don't love his front arm. I think it affects his accuracy."

Steve Palazzolo outlines some of his concerns about Arch Manning ahead of the 2027 season

“I still don’t think he’s throw-for-throw accurate. I think his ball placement is all over the place... and I don’t love his front arm. I think it affects his accuracy.” pic.twitter.com/2N1cKLSnWs
— Check the Mic with Steve Palazzolo & Sam Monson (@CTM_Show) May 5, 2026

Manning hasn't discussed his mechanics much this offseason, but we assume he's tweaking them behind the scenes as he prepares for the beginning of the season in September.

Despite missing the College Football Playoff last season, expectations remain high for the Longhorns. As of Wednesday, FanDuel Sportsbook gives Texas the third-best odds to win the national championship (+750), behind the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+650) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (+550).

To meet those, Manning must become a much more precise passer, whether it's by overhauling his motion or wearing custom-made glasses from Warby Parker, with whom he has an NIL (name, image, and likeness) deal. If the QB becomes a pinpoint passer this season, his already-strong chances of going No. 1 overall in 2027 will increase significantly.

Clark Dalton

Clark Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

More must-reads: