NFL executive warns about Arch Manning 2027 draft hype

Way-too-early mock drafts are predicting that either Texas quarterback Arch Manning or Oregon's Dante Moore will ultimately emerge as the top overall pick of the 2027 NFL Draft. 

For a piece published on Monday, NFL insider Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated spoke with one unnamed assistant general manager about what Manning is and isn't at this stage of his development. 

Why Arch Manning isn't yet a "generational" talent

"He’s a good quarterback prospect — 6-foot-4, athletic, can run, has plus arm talent but not special arm talent, and has improved every year," the executive said about Manning. "The last name is putting the 'generational' thing on him, and I don’t think he’s that. His decision-making under duress is still iffy and needs work; he runs hot and cold with his accuracy. He can make pinpoint throws, but consistently misses on in-cuts, digs and slants."

Of course, that assistant general manager was referencing how Manning is the nephew of Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and of two-time Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Eli Manning. Additionally, Arch Manning is the grandson of former NFL quarterback Archie Manning. 

As of Monday afternoon, DraftKings Sportsbook listed Arch Manning as the overall betting favorite at +250 odds to be the first pick of the 2027 player-selection process. Moore was second on the list at +380 odds at that time. 

"You’ll bet on the kid because of the pedigree, but he’s not in the Andrew Luck category," the assistant general manager added about Arch Manning. "How I’d look at it: Luck was freaky smart, a freaky athlete. The floor was extremely high, the failure rate really low. Arch doesn’t have a low floor, but it’s definitely lower than that. And he has a ceiling that could match Luck’s — the true physical ability could match it. But some of the QB-specific play, he’s not there yet."

Different assistant GM seems to be a bigger fan of Arch Manning

Meanwhile, a different assistant general manager who spoke with Breer compared Arch Manning to Los Angeles Chargers star Justin Herbert. That executive said that Arch Manning "checks all those boxes" regarding what a team would want in a QB1. 

"You had to project with Herbert some, but he was a big athlete, a good dude," the second assistant GM added while speaking about Arch Manning. "That’s a pretty good comp."

The team that drafts Arch Manning next year would probably be quite satisfied if he follows in Herbert's footsteps. The Chargers made Herbert a first-round pick in 2020, and the club signed him to a five-year, $262.5M contract extension in the summer of 2023.