
The Baltimore Orioles have no answer to their severe pitching woes.
On Monday, lefty Trevor Rogers, making his second start after returning from the injured list, continued an underwhelming 2026 in Baltimore's 16-6 loss to the division-rival Tampa Bay Rays (31-15). Rogers pitched 3.2 innings, allowing seven earned runs on eight hits and two walks with three strikeouts.
After being a silver lining during a difficult 75-87 season a year ago by posting a 1.81 earned run average (ERA) in 18 starts, Rogers has been a huge disappointment in 2026 despite a promising beginning to the season, allowing four earned runs across his first three starts while posting a 1.89 ERA. He's struggled mightily over the past month, producing an alarming 11.84 ERA in his last five starts.
Rogers' struggles are something the Orioles (21-27) are all too familiar with. Entering Monday, Baltimore ranked No. 28 in runs allowed (249), the starting staff No. 27 in ERA (5.05). Overall, the O's have a 23 percent quality start rate, tied for the third-lowest in the AL.
Rogers landed on the injured list last month after a bout with illness and returned on May 12, giving up six runs in four innings in a 6-2 loss to the New York Yankees. He got through the order once against Tampa Bay before the wheels fell off, giving up six two-out runs in the bottom of the second, the final two runs coming across on a shallow bloop hit that bounced off second baseman Jeremiah Jackson's glove and turned into a double.
Rays are Rays'ing. They're up 6-0 after this soft liner by Jonny DeLuca deflects off Jeremiah Jackson's glove and turns into a two-run double off Trevor Rogers.
— Matt Weyrich (@ByMattWeyrich) May 18, 2026
: @Orioles pic.twitter.com/H8UGtUCV9u
That fluke, two-out, two-strike play was a microcosm of Rogers' struggles. His inability to close innings — and at-bats — has been a glaring issue all season, with MLB Network's Alex Fast noting four of his seven hits allowed against Tampa Bay came with two strikes.
4 of the 7 hits Trevor Rogers gave up in the first 2 IP were with 2 strikes.
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) May 18, 2026
The Baltimore Sun's Jacob Calvin Meyer shared eye-popping stats showing Rogers' struggles when a strike away from a punch out this season, with batters hitting .329 against him, significantly higher than their average otherwise (.167). Meyer also noted opponents' .871 two-strike OPS against Rogers is the worst in MLB.
What the average MLB hitter does in two-strike counts:
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) May 18, 2026
.167 BA
.248 OBP
.257 SLG
.505 OPS
What MLB hitters are doing in two-strike counts vs. Trevor Rogers:
.329 BA
.398 OBP
.474 SLG
.871 OPS
Rogers' .871 OPS against with two strikes is the worst among MLB starting pitchers.
Making matters even more frustrating, The Baltimore Banner's Andy Kostka shared opponents were hitting a staggering .404 in two-out plate appearances against Rogers leading into Monday's game, when he gave up four hits and a walk while an out away from ending the second inning.
Trevor Rogers entered today with opponents hitting .404 against him in two-out plate appearances. He can't get the third out in the second inning today, either.
— Andy Kostka (@afkostka) May 18, 2026
Three singles, a "double" and a walk with two outs in the second. Rays lead, 6-0
Arguably, the biggest difference for Rogers this year from his breakthrough in 2025 is a drop-off in his four-seam fastball. Last year, opponents hit .158 with 45 strikeouts in 139 at-bats facing his four-seamer, compared to .296 with 10 strikeouts in 54 at-bats. (h/t Baseball Savant)
Baltimore's entire starting rotation has been awful this season, but Rogers' downturn in production is particularly dispiriting after being a bright spot in 2025. Instead of being part of a turnaround, he's fallen victim to the same curse, one of which the Orioles have yet to find a cure.
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