Storylines for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Scottie Scheffler's to lose

Scottie Scheffler. Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Storylines for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Scottie Scheffler's to lose

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated May 19, 2026 9:44 AM ET

The second major championship of the season has come and gone, but the PGA Tour rolls on this week with the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Let's break down the juiciest storylines for the PGA Championship encore, starting with the defending champion and World No. 1.

Scottie Scheffler versus the field

According to the unique odds board at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Scheffler has nearly the same chance to win as the other 144 players in the field combined. The reigning champ opened at +150 odds (DraftKings) to win the tournament, making him the largest favorite to win a PGA Tour event since at least 2019, per Rick Gehman. It's not hard to see why.

Scheffler shot 31-under par at TPC Craig Ranch last year to win the tournament by eight strokes. Star players such as Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick are all taking the week off. No one in this field can touch Scheffler if he just brings his B-game, so this tournament is his to lose.

Who is Scheffler's biggest challenger?

This field is devoid of elite talent, but there are some big names who can push Scheffler to the brink at TPC Craig Ranch.

Scottie Scheffler (+150) has the shortest outright odds to win a PGA TOUR event since at least 2019. pic.twitter.com/df0hyv03Ba
— Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) May 18, 2026

Jordan Spieth, a fellow Texan who's recorded three top-10 finishes in his last four starts here, is the obvious choice, but he doesn't have a top-10 finish this season and hasn't won since 2022. Si Woo Kim is another option due to his ability to get scorching hot with his iron play. Brooks Koepka stands out because of his pedigree, but he has just one top-10 finish this season and is still struggling with the putter.

Maybe one of the talented up-and-comers—Michael Thorbjornsen, Michael Brennan, Blades Brown and John Keefer, to name a few—can catch fire and take Scheffler down.

Tony Finau, Tom Kim in need of a spark

Finau and Kim used to be mainstays on the PGA Tour. At their peak, they were both favored to win tournaments at the highest level. Now, they're just fighting to keep their jobs.

Finau has fallen to 120th in the Official World Golf Ranking. He failed to qualify for the Masters and the PGA Championship this year, marking the first time he didn't compete in a major since 2017. As for Kim, he's recorded 10 missed cuts and just five top-20 finishes in his last 37 starts. The three-time PGA Tour winner has dropped outside the top 140 in the OWGR and the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings.

If Finau and Kim don't start playing better, they could be in danger of losing their PGA Tour cards.

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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