Why added rest could be major advantage for Hurricanes over Canadiens

When the Eastern Conference Finals open on Thursday night, it will be the Carolina Hurricanes' first game since their May 9, second-round series-clinching win against the Philadelphia Flyers. They have had a 12-day break because it took the Montreal Canadiens seven games to defeat the Buffalo Sabres, dragging out the second round.

It is the longest layoff between playoff games in the modern era of the NHL.

There is some debate as to what sort of impact that will have on both the Hurricanes and the Canadiens.

Will that extended lay-off lead to some rust that is difficult to shake off?

Or will the break do them well and allow them to get healthy while waiting for a team that had to work extra hard to win a full-length series?

There is some history to suggest it might be a massive advantage for the Hurricanes.

Carolina Hurricanes have played six fewer games than Montreal Canadiens this postseason

Thanks to a pair of four-game sweeps to open the playoffs in the first and second rounds (over the Ottawa Senators and Flyers), the Hurricanes have played just eight playoff games going into the Eastern Conference Final. That is the minimum number of games a team could play in reaching this point. They are the first team in NHL history to win back-to-back sweeps in the first two rounds of the playoffs. 

By comparison, the Canadiens needed seven-game series wins over both the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Sabres to get here. They have played 14 playoff games, which is literally the maximum number of games a team could play to reach this point.

That six-game disparity is unprecedented for teams facing off in the conference final. 

That is where the advantage might come in for the Hurricanes.

It is not necessarily about the number of days off in a row between series, but the simple fact that they have not had to play that many games. Montreal has, quite literally, played an extra series worth of games going into this matchup.

That has to take its toll. 

Hockey people love to tell everybody who will listen what a grind the Stanley Cup Playoffs are and how it is the hardest championship to win. If that is true, you would have to give the Hurricanes a major edge based on this. 

History suggests they will have it. 

Going back to the start of the 1990 playoffs, there has never been a matchup in the Conference Finals where one team played six fewer games than its opponent. 

The largest gap was four games, something that had happened two previous times.

• The 2003 Anaheim Ducks entered the Western Conference Final that year having played just 10 games, and faced a Minnesota Wild team that needed 14 games.
• In 1994, the New York Rangers reached the then-Wales Conference Finals having needed just nine games, while the New Jersey Devils needed 13 games.

In both instances, the team that needed fewer games won the series.

Including those two series, there have been eight series going back to 1990 where there was at least a three-game gap in terms of games played going into a conference final matchup. 

In seven of those instances, the team that played the fewest games won the series. 

The only exception was the 2014 New York Rangers (14 games played) beating the Canadiens (11 games played). It should be noted that Montreal lost starting goalie Carey Price in Game 1 of that series and had to play the entire series with Dustin Tokarski and Peter Budaj in net. Had Price not been injured, there is a good chance Montreal (the rested team) would have won that series. 

Even if you look at a two-game disparity in games played, in 26 out of 33 instances, the team with fewer games played has won the series. 

There are two potentially significant takeaways here:

1) Playing significantly fewer games keeps a team rested, fresh and healthier.

2) Better teams tend to dominate, win series in fewer games, and it makes sense that this would continue into the later rounds

Either way, it's a very positive sign for Carolina.

It is also potentially bad news for the Canadiens.