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What is Matthew Schaefer going to make? His contract will shock people

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What is Matthew Schaefer going to make? His contract will shock people

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | Last updated Jul 30, 2026 1:35 PM ET

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NHL Hall of Fame defenseman Chris Pronger asked an interesting question this week. He wrote, “Well now the dominoes are starting to fall. [Leo] Carlsson contract set the market and now [Connor] Bedard and [Macklin] Celebrini have followed suit. With the cap continuing to go higher the next few years who surpasses Celebrini?” The answer could be a few names, but the most likely seems to be Matthew Schaefer from the New York Islanders.

While Cale Makar could do it, there’s Nathan MacKinnon‘s contract that the Avalanche have as a bit of an internal ceiling. In Minnesota, where Quinn Hughes could get paid, there’s Kirill Kaprizov and the fact that Hughes wants a three-year deal to align with his brother Jack’s deal ending at the same time. Those factors will impact his AAV. With the Islanders, Schaefer is the man. He’s already the face of the franchise and just scratching the surface of what he’ll become. The Islanders are going to have (and they’ll be more than willing) to pay him what the market demands.

This month alone, Leo Carlsson signed for five years and $18 million annually in Anaheim, while Macklin Celebrini locked in at $18.8 million per season. Those two deals reset the market almost instantly, and the hockey world’s attention immediately shifted to who’s next: Connor Bedard already got his at five years and $15 million in Chicago, and names like Will Smith, Adam Fantilli and Schaefer are now squarely in the conversation.

Schaefer stands out.

Why will Matthew Schaefer be next to set the bar?

He is the reigning Calder Trophy winner and the player drawing the boldest predictions. If his trajectory holds, evaluators believe the Islanders could eventually be negotiating with the league’s first $20 million-per-year defenseman — a number that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Many are already pegging him to be the successor to Celebrini’s market-setting deal, with Schaefer likely the next player to surpass it, potentially as soon as next summer.

If there’s one reason to wonder, it’s that Schaefer has been openly public about his thoughts about a contract. Speaking at the Smilezone Foundation Celebrity Golf Tournament, he was asked directly about his own next contract and kept the focus off the money entirely. “I don’t care about the money. I just want to play the game of hockey,” he said, adding that his priority is winning in a Long Island uniform surrounded by the right people.

But let’s keep in mind that Celebrini said he wanted to help out the Sharks. While he did, $18.8 million per season might not have been what some fans expected as a team-friendly deal.

Given Celebrini’s numbers after taking a discount, it should be noted that taking a team-friendly deal doesn’t mean what it used to. Schaefer is unlikely to chase every last dollar the way some rising stars might. Still, the expectation is that a deal reflects both his value and the likelihood he doesn’t leave millions on the table.

With the salary-cap continuing to climb and comparable young stars resetting the market every few weeks, Schaefer’s camp understands the leverage he’ll have. The only real question left is timing — and how high the number climbs before he signs.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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