Top Group of Six CFP contenders: Favorites, dark horses per conference

The mid-majors welcome another conference in 2026.

After years of being a major power, the former "conference of champions" Pac-12 is back in a much smaller eight-team form and without the media-adorned "power conference" label.

Below, we rank the freshly minted Group of Six from strongest to weakest based on combined averages of preseason ESPN FPI and Brian Fremeau's efficiency rankings and take a closer look at the favorite and a dark horse to win each conference, with at least one advancing to the College Football Playoff.

1. Pac-12

Lead candidate: Boise State Broncos
Dark horse: San Diego State Aztecs 

Boise State, the conference favorite according to FanDuel, should benefit from the continuity of returning coach Spencer Danielson, quarterback Maddux Madsen and running back Dylan Riley, among others.

Danielson is 24-8 in three seasons as coach, reaching the CFP in 2024. Madsen started at quarterback on that squad and is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 when he completed just 58.3 percent of his passes for 2,334 yards. Riley, meanwhile, filled former star Boise State back Ashton Jeanty's shoes admirably, rushing for 1,125 yards on 195 carries and scoring 12 total touchdowns a season ago.

Sean Lewis is entering his third season as San Diego State head coach and has a squad capable of making noise following last year's 9-4 finish. Running back Lucky Sutton led the conference with 1,297 rushing yards last season, and returning former Michigan recruit Jayden Denegal provides continuity at quarterback, though he'll need to show marked improvement after averaging 150.6 passing yards as a redshirt junior.

2. The American

Lead candidate: UTSA Roadrunners
Dark horse: East Carolina Pirates 

Oddsmakers have labeled the explosive UTSA a slight favorite to win the American, which sent Tulane to the CFP last season. 

Fifth-year quarterback Owen McCown, the son of former NFL quarterback Josh McCown, completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,995 yards, 30 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season, while redshirt sophomore running back gives the program a dynamic rushing attack after averaging 6.9 yards per carry in 2025.

Blake Harrell enters his second full season as East Carolina coach and is 14-5 (.737) after taking over in an interim role midway through 2024.

Quarterback Mitch Griffis, a seven-year senior Texas Tech transfer, is competing with fourth-year Miami transfer Emory Williams for the starting job in camp. Regardless of who wins the competition, the Pirates will have a Power Four veteran at the position, providing the type of leadership that could give East Carolina an edge.

3. Sun Belt

Lead candidate: James Madison Dukes 
Dark horse: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 

Former head coach Bob Chesney's departure for UCLA hasn't scared off the betting market, which backs the Dukes following last year's 12-2 season that ended with a trip to the CFP. Former Florida coach Billy Napier takes over and must replace star quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who joined UCF.

Napier's former team, Louisiana, could be poised for a big season as talented quarterback Lunch Winfield aims to build on a promising 2025, when he started the final eight games of the season and threw for 1,426 yards while adding 519 rushing yards.

"He's incredible," Napier told reporters when asked about Winfield at the conference's media days. "This quarterback they have coming back is a problem."