History says Rams will likely fall short of Super Bowl expectations in 2026

If history repeats itself, the 2026 Los Angeles Rams may not win Super Bowl LXI, despite entering the season as an overwhelming favorite. 

As of Monday, FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Rams as Super Bowl favorites (+500). The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, have the second-best odds (+1000).

This offseason, the Rams acquired defensive end Myles Garrett, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, in a trade with the Cleveland Browns. The deal bolstered an already stacked squad, which features quarterback Matthew Stafford, 2025 league MVP. Not to mention, retired defensive lineman Aaron Donald appears to be preparing to come back for this upcoming season to win his second Super Bowl ring. If he does, this would widen the gap between the club and other championship contenders. 

The Rams are clearly a superteam. With that in mind, ESPN's Bill Barnwell examined the 15 largest preseason Super Bowl favorites since 1990 to see how L.A. could fare in 2026. It won't like Barnwell's findings. 

History says 2026 Rams probably won't win Super Bowl

"Of those 15 most significant favorites, exactly two [1994 San Francisco 49ers and 2018 New England Patriots] lived up to expectations and took home the Lombardi Trophy," wrote Barnwell. "That might seem like a major disappointment, but it's not far off from what we would have expected given their preseason projections. If we use the implied win probabilities, the numbers suggest these teams would've won 2.35 Super Bowls. Winning two in reality is pretty close to what the markets suggested."

Two of these teams missed the playoffs: the 2002 Rams (then in St. Louis) and the 2008 Patriots. The Rams went 7-9, while the Patriots went 11-5 but lost the AFC East title to the Miami Dolphins.  

Both of their starting QBs suffered injuries that season. Former Rams QB Kurt Warner battled right-hand issues throughout the 2002 season, going 0-6 in six starts and missing nine games. Marc Bulger replaced Warner while he was sidelined. Former Patriots QB Tom Brady tore the ACL/MCL in his left knee in Week 1, forcing backup Matt Cassel into the starting lineup. 

The 2026 Rams could be doomed to a similar fate if Stafford, 38, misses multiple games because of a significant injury. L.A.'s backup QBs are Stetson Bennett IV and rookie Ty Simpson, both inexperienced. 2023 fourth-round pick Bennett has yet to attempt a pass in a regular-season game. Simpson, pick No. 13 of the 2026 NFL Draft, started 15 games for the Alabama Crimson Tide, well below the threshold for most successful pro QBs. For context, Stafford started 34 games for the Georgia Bulldogs from 2006-08. 

Stafford could stay healthy. Even then, a difficult schedule could complicate the Rams' path to the Super Bowl. Tankathon ranks L.A.'s 2026 schedule as the third-most-difficult in the NFL. 

The Rams are in the NFC West, where they will play the Seattle Seahawks, the defending Super Bowl champions, in Weeks 16 and 18. Seattle lost running back Kenneth Walker III to the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency, but kept most of its roster intact, putting it in a position to compete for a championship again. FanDuel gives Seattle the third-best Super Bowl odds (+1100). 

Anything less than a Super Bowl win would be considered a disappointment for the Rams. That said, it wouldn't be stunning if they don't win a championship in 2026. History says dream teams usually aren't the ones hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at season's end.