Concerns over Paul Skenes grow as struggles continue in start versus Tigers

Skenes allowed three earned runs on four hits with five strikeouts and four walks, marking another subpar outing for the Pirates ace, who is running out of possible solutions to make his way back to his earlier form.

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes' struggles continue on extra rest

Through Skenes' first 64 games, no starting pitcher in baseball was better, largely thanks to one of the game's most devastating fastballs. He recorded a 1.97 ERA with 442 strikeouts and 81 walks in 370.2 innings, helping him earn three All-Star nods, including as a starter his rookie season. Per Stathead research, he's the only pitcher of the expansion era (since 1961) with a sub-2.00 ERA in his first 64 career major league starts.

But over his last 17 games, Skenes' numbers have nosedived. His season ERA has increased by nearly two runs — from 1.98 entering June 17 to 3.95 after Wednesday — and the once-dominant fastball has seen a significant dip in velocity.

Per Baseball Savant, his four-seamer averaged over 98 mph in each of his first two seasons but is at 96.8 mph this season. In late July, Codify highlighted Skenes' drastic splits between starts when his fastball averaged at least 98 mph and the ones it didn't, revealing the difference between an all-time great and the third or fourth option in a rotation.

Skenes' struggles have helped put the Pirates (63-66) 5.5 games behind the San Diego Padres (68-60) for the NL's third wild-card spot with 33 games remaining. Unless the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year flips a switch, Pittsburgh doesn't have much of a chance of working its way back into the playoff picture. But Skenes' downturn in production is concerning beyond this season, raising questions about his long-term future.

The team has pushed back on the struggles being health-related, but as Yahoo Sports senior MLB writer Jake Mintz wrote last week, "Any pitcher under 30 ... with a track record of success who experiences a significant dip in velocity... is probably hurt.

"Surgery is usually the fix," Mintz added. That would be a doomsday option for the Pirates, but if that's the ultimate endgame, the timing may work in the organization's favor. The longer owners insist on installing a salary cap, chances are we won't have a 2027 season anyway, so Skenes may avoid missing time altogether in that scenario.

Regardless of what the issue is, Skenes appears to definitely have one. And it'll take more than a couple of extra days off to solve.