Five storylines to get ready for the 2026 U.S. Open

According to ESPN, Alcaraz (+250) is the favorite entering Sunday's tournament start, but his odds dipped slightly from when world No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew from the field. Then, he was +140.

In Round 1, Alcaraz plays Roman Safiullin, who the Associated Press noted is 1-1 against the young star. If seeded players in Alcaraz's section advance, he'd be on track to play No. 30 Matteo Arnaldi in the third, followed by No. 15 Alexander Bublik or No. 20 Tommy Paul in the fourth. No. 8 Ben Shelton and No. 10 Arthur Fils, coming off a Cincinnati Open title, loom as his toughest possible quarterfinal opponents.

It's a challenging path to becoming the first repeat men's U.S. Open winner since Roger Federer won five in a row (2004-08). We'll soon find out if one mixed doubles tune-up was enough to prepare him for what lies ahead.

What could have been

As the AP noted, the women's singles draw reveal showed we were oh-so-close to an incredible first-round sight. Venus Williams and Sofia Kenin, two wild cards, were randomly selected to play each other. Kenin was a late add to the wild-card pool, only receiving a nod after Serena elected against participating in the singles competition.

Had she taken a wild-card bid, we could have gotten a 32nd career match between the Williams sisters and first since 2020.

American men look for breakthrough title

No American has won the U.S. Open men's singles championship since Andy Roddick in 2003.

Along with Shelton and Paul, six seeded Americans will try to end the drought, including Taylor Fritz (No. 9), Frances Tiafoe (No. 11), Learner Tien (No. 14), Brandon Nakashima (No. 16).

Last year, Shelton received the No. 6 seed and was upset in the third round. The last time he advanced to Round 4 was in 2023, which ended with a run to the semifinals. In eight previous main draw appearances, Paul is 10-8, going as far as the fourth round twice.

Fritz reached the 2024 U.S. Open final, losing a straight-setter to Sinner. Last year, he met Novak Djokovic in the quarters and fell to 0-4 against the all-time great at a grand slam.

Tiafoe's previous best finish also came in 2024, when he lost to Fritz in the semis. He made it to Round 3 in 2025.

Tien is 0-4 all-time at the U.S. Open, losing to Djokovic last August. Nakashima has never won more than three matches at a major tournament, dropping both of his previous fourth-round matches (2022 Wimbledon, 2024 U.S. Open).

Women's No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka has a potentially difficult path

The back-to-back U.S. Open champion is aiming for a fifth career grand slam title and first of 2026. She'll be challenged well before the quarters, possibly as early as Round 3, where No. 27 Barbora Krejcikova, a two-time grand slam champion (2021 Roland-Garros, 2024 Wimbledon), looms as the likeliest opponent.

From there, No. 20 Maja Chwalinska and Diana Shnaider would be Sabalenka's most dangerous challengers in the fourth. Earlier this year, Chwalinska made her first grand slam final at Roland-Garros, where Shnaider defeated Sabalenka in a three-set quarterfinal. 

Largest prize total in tennis history

The stakes are higher than ever with a record $108 million in prize money available, up 20 percent from 2025 ($90M). Singles champions will earn $5.5M, the most in grand slam history.

But don't feel bad for those exiting early. Everyone in each main draw already won. Players departing after their opening match will walk away with a cool $140,000.