Why Texas QB Arch Manning shouldn't be an overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall in 2027 NFL Draft

Texas Longhorns junior quarterback Arch Manning shouldn't be the front-runner to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft, scheduled April 29-May 1 in Washington. 

Draft gurus are releasing their preseason big boards and mock drafts ahead of Week 1 of the college football season. Texas opens at home against the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET). Unlike other recent notable QB prospects, there isn't consensus on where Manning should rank in a loaded 2027 QB class. 

NFL Draft gurus split on Arch Manning 

On his preseason big board, The Athletic's Dane Brugler lists Manning as his QB1. The Ringer's Todd McShay, meanwhile, isn't as bullish on the Longhorn. He tabbed him as his QB4, behind CJ Carr (Notre Dame Fighting Irish), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina Gamecocks) and Dante Moore (Oregon Ducks). 

McShay still views Manning as a potential first-rounder, giving him a grade of 92. That speaks to the crop's depth. The longtime draft analyst noted his board features seven QBs with a 91 or better, "which is something [he's] never had this early in the process." Moore has the best grade (95). However, that's not the only reason Manning isn't QB1 on his board.

"[Manning's] eyes, feet and overall process aren't consistently connected," wrote McShay for a story published Monday. "His mechanics can look clean and easy on one snap and completely different on the next. And the biggest concern right now is ball placement. There are simply too many routine misses for a quarterback we're discussing as the No. 1 overall pick." 

McShay's former colleague, ESPN draftnik Mel Kiper Jr., would agree. On a Monday episode of "First Draft," Kiper said Manning must do a better job of making precise throws and not just "[putting] the ball in the area" and hoping a pass-catcher corrals it.

The gripes about his accuracy are fair. Last season, Manning completed a below-average 61.4 percent of his passes. Even if you account for drops and spikes, he wasn't one of the most accurate passers in college football. Per Pro Football Focus, his adjusted completion percentage (73 percent) placed him 72nd among 168 eligible QBs. Ohio State Buckeyes sophomore QB Julian Sayin ranked No. 1 in this advanced stat (82.5 adjusted completion percentage). 

Manning's completion percentage should improve with the addition of wide receiver Cam Coleman. Still, it's surprising he's not farther along as a passer, especially in comparison to past No. 1 picks. 

Manning has played 25 games in three seasons at Texas, completing 62.3 percent of his passes. For context, Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams completed 65.9 percent in his first 25 collegiate games with the Oklahoma Sooners and USC Trojans. Williams finished his collegiate career with a 66.9 completion percentage and was the first of six QBs taken in the 2024 draft, which tied the record set in 1983.

Williams started more games during that span after replacing Spencer Rattler (now with the New Orleans Saints) during the 2021 season. Manning backed up Quinn Ewers (now with the Jacksonville Jaguars) in his first two seasons in Austin. 

Even so, Manning's not as polished as Williams was at this point. And those pristine passers are clear No. 1 picks, not ones with questions about their NFL readiness, like Manning, who must show more in 2026 to prove he's worthy of a top pick.