The numbers that could end up dooming Mike Norvell at Florida State

Everyone wants to talk about the buyout, and that makes sense.

If the Florida State Seminoles wanted to fire head coach Mike Norvell today, they'd owe him over $46 million. That's a lot of scratch to not coach, and at this point, jaded fans in Tallahassee may be wondering if Norvell is trying to get fired so he can collect his cash and take some time off.

It certainly seems that way after Florida State's 27-24 loss to No. 19 SMU. Losing at home to a program that just joined the ACC, no matter what the rankings said, is unacceptable at a place like Florida State. 

Everyone wants to talk about the buyout figure, but there are a few other numbers that may end up dooming Norvell in Tallahassee when all is said and done. Buyout be damned, Norvell is on an all-time slump.

Jason Kirk of The Athletic quoted OptaStats in a recent newsletter, and the numbers would have been prettier had Norvell been trying to lose the game.

“SMU is the only FBS or NFL team in the last 30 years to have: -3 or worse turnover margin, twice as many penalties as their opponent, fewer rushing yards than their opponent, lower TOP than their opponent, more missed FG than their opponent … and yet still win the game.”

Mike Norvell has been on an all-time slump with Florida State

That's not all, though. With the loss, Norvell is now 8-18 since 2023. Even with a 10-3 season in 2022 followed by a 13-1 season in 2023, his overall winning percentage at FSU is an abysmal .527. That's how bad this stretch has been.

The issue for FSU and Norvell is that things may not get much better. The Seminoles' next stretch of games features No. 12 Alabama, No. 25 Virginia, No. 24 Louisville and No. 7 Miami.

Florida State could very well be 2-5 heading into a Halloween matchup with Clemson, with its only two wins coming against New Mexico State and Central Arkansas. Heck, at this point, is a win against Central Arkansas even guaranteed? That's how bad things have gotten in Tallahassee.