NC State's inexplicable collapse at Vandy enters pantheon of painful Wolfpack losses

According to ESPN Analytics, NC State had a 99.9 percent chance of pulling off an upset road win at Vanderbilt when quarterback CJ Bailey took a shotgun snap at his own goal line with six seconds left and the Wolfpack up three, 31-28.

But that's when disaster struck. 

Bailey attempted to run out the clock, yet Vanderbilt's pressure forced him to his right, and edge Miles Capers knocked the football loose. Cornerback Cayden Daniels recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown and a shocking 35-31 Vanderbilt win. 

ESPN Insights noted that before the wild ending, teams were 1,046-1 over the last 20 seasons when leading with possession in the final 10 seconds.

It was a dumbfounding sequence that will be remembered and talked about for years. Bailey had plenty of options that would have sealed an NC State win yet picked the only wrong one. The junior quarterback first appeared to consider taking a knee in the end zone with roughly three seconds left, which would have cut the lead to one and given Vanderbilt potentially one play — if it called a fair catch on the safety punt — to pull off a win. So, not impossible but far from probable.

Bailey could have scrambled out of the back of the end zone. He could have also thrown a deep incompletion, ensuring the clock hit zero and not giving Vanderbilt an opportunity to attempt a tying field goal following the turnover on downs.

Instead, the game ended in the most NC State way imaginable.

The "NC State S---" phenomenon is far from new — it got its own Urban Dictionary entry back in 2009 — and the football program is far from the only victim.

In 2014, NC State men's basketball squandered a 16-point lead in an 83-80 overtime loss to Saint Louis in the NCAA Tournament, thanks in large part to a stunning 17 missed free throws.

Two years before that, NC State football erased an early 25-7 deficit to the heated rival North Carolina Tar Heels only to be outscored 18-0 in the fourth quarter of a 43-35 loss, giving up the go-ahead score on a 73-yard punt return touchdown with 13 seconds left.

In 2016, the Wolfpack missed a chip-shot 33-yard field goal at the end of regulation in what would have been a statement road win over then-No. 3 Clemson, ultimately losing 24-17.

NC State didn't just live up to its sordid reputation against Vanderbilt; it revealed depths no one had seen before. And as brutal as Saturday's inexplicable defeat was, the Wolfpack may be down here a while.