What a win over No. 21 Florida would mean for No. 4 Ole Miss' playoff resume

Ole Miss is off to a 3-0 start and sits No. 4 in the AP poll, and its trip to Gainesville on Saturday gives the Rebels a chance at a third ranked win already in the fourth week of the season. Beating Florida would push Ole Miss' case for a top playoff seed and would give them the ability to lose one of their remaining games against a game team and still be in a good position for a top seed. 

Ole Miss opened the season with a 41-38 win over then-No. 24 Louisville (now No. 16) off of a field goal from Lucas Carneiro as time expired. Then beat Lane Kiffin and LSU 32-24 in Oxford on Sept. 19, a game that pushed the Rebels to their highest AP ranking since 2014. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, running back Kewan Lacy and wide receiver Duece Alexander have so far carried this offense in all three games. Both of these wins came against teams who are ranked in the top 20, not just weaker teams padding the schedule.

Jon Sumrall, who was an Ole Miss assistant before taking over at Florida, has built his offense around running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh has scored a touchdown in each of Florida's first three games and ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Auburn. Stopping him will be the clearest problem in front of Ole Miss this week. But it's also the clearest way for the Rebels to prove their defense belongs in the same conversation as their offense. 

Why a win over Florida matters for Ole Miss

Playoff committees look at strength of schedule and quality wins, not just win totals. A win over Florida would give Ole Miss three ranked wins before October even starts, and they're still scheduled to play four more ranked teams (Missouri, Texas, Georgia and Mississippi State). A win this week keeps the margin for error wider for Ole Miss heading into that stretch.

A loss to Florida would not end Ole Miss' playoff hopes, but it would remove the clean resume that the Rebels have built up so far. Committees remember bad losses more than they remember close ones, and a defeat at Florida would give Ole Miss' remaining schedule far less room for a slip-up. Losing to a team ranked outside the top 20 would stand far more than if they were to lose to Texas or Georgia later in the year.

A third straight win over a ranked opponent keeps the Rebels near the top of the poll and gives them real separation from the rest of the SEC's contenders before the toughest part of the schedule begins.