'I have him graded as a Day 2 prospect': NFL Draft gurus discuss Texas QB Arch Manning's stock after collapse vs. Oklahoma

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

'I have him graded as a Day 2 prospect': NFL Draft gurus discuss Texas QB Arch Manning's stock after collapse vs. Oklahoma

By Clark Dalton | Last updated Oct 11, 2026 1:09 PM ET

Many experts no longer think Texas Longhorns junior quarterback Arch Manning will go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft (scheduled April 29-May 1 in Washington).

On Saturday, Manning faltered in a 27-24 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry, throwing two costly interceptions in the fourth quarter. He tossed a pick-six early in the quarter, giving Oklahoma a 24-17 lead. After Texas responded with a touchdown on the ensuing drive, the Longhorns had the ball and a chance to win, but that evaporated when he threw another pick with 0:19 seconds remaining. Sooners kicker Tate Sandell subsequently made the game-winning 47-yard field goal.

Those mistakes are why Manning wasn't in the Heisman conversation entering the game. Along with no longer being a candidate for major awards, the QB is no longer being hailed as a future No. 1 pick.

NFL Draft gurus talk Arch Manning

In a Sunday story, ESPN's Jordan Reid noted Manning's highs are those of a franchise QB, but the lows have ultimately overshadowed them.

ARCH THROWS A PICK-SIX AND THE SOONERS TAKE THE LEAD‼️

Watch now on ABC and the ESPN App pic.twitter.com/qUFgT2Kr0W
— ESPN (@espn) October 10, 2026

"Manning has two or three plays per game that explain why some scouts still view him as a potential top-10 pick," wrote Reid. "But those plays are surrounded by too much inconsistency, which is why I have him graded as a Day 2 prospect right now on my QB hot board."

ARCH MANNING THROWS A COSTLY INTERCEPTION WITH 20 SECONDS LEFT!! pic.twitter.com/Hq9o38IUzf
— ESPN (@espn) October 10, 2026

The Ringer's Todd McShay believes Manning's problems are typical growing pains for a 22-year-old QB.

"You can't coach his traits or some of his playmaking under pressure," he wrote of the 6-foot-4, 222-pounder. "Locking onto targets, holding onto the ball too long and general inconsistency are all coachable issues that often improve with experience. We just happen to be watching his development under a microscope."

NFL teams, however, are impatient. Organizations that select a QB in the first round usually play them at some point during their rookie seasons. 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) and 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans) started 17 games during their rookie seasons. Even QBs who didn't go No. 1 overall played plenty. New York Giants second-year QB Jaxson Dart (pick No. 25) started 12 games as a rookie.

With that in mind, Manning may want to return to school in 2027. Sure, Texas (4-1) has seven regular-season games remaining, but a QB who ranks 44th in the country in QBR (65.5) isn't pro-ready.

Manning, the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli and grandson of 1971 No. 2 pick Archie, could reach the same heights as his relatives. But he's simply not there yet.

Clark Dalton

Clark Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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