Dave Roberts' Blake Snell decision vindicates Kevin Cash years later

When Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell clubbed their back-to-back home runs in the top of the seventh inning on Wednesday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers, helping the Milwaukee Brewers roll to a 6-2 win and a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series, it no doubt set off wild celebrations across Wisconsin.

It also probably made one other random person feel a slight sense of vindication — Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash. 

Dave Roberts found himself in a familiar position with Blake Snell

If you are a Tampa Bay Rays fan, you probably already know the story.

The scene: Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, the Rays are facing a win-or-go-home situation, and their ace, Blake Snell, is cruising through six innings, allowing zero runs and having thrown just 73 pitches.

After giving up a one-out single to Austin Barnes, Cash made the controversial decision to lift Snell and turn the game over to his bullpen.

It immediately backfired as the bullpen gave up two runs that inning, an insurance run in the eighth, and sent the Dodgers to a World Series championship while the Rays had an entire winter of "what ifs" to replay in their heads.

This is all relevant because Dodgers manager Dave Roberts had a similar decision for himself on Wednesday night, with Snell on his side of the game.

After giving up a first-pitch home run to Jackson Chourio to open the game, Snell settled in and dominated for six innings. 

Roberts decided to continue rolling with Snell at the start of the seventh inning and his third time through the Brewers' order.

He then stuck with him following a lead-off walk to Andrew Vaughn.

Then he stuck with him after Bauers swung the game back in Milwaukee's favor with a two-run home run, capping off a marathon 11-pitch at-bat.

He stuck with him long enough to give up a second home run that inning to Mitchell to turn a 2-1 Dodgers lead into a 4-2 Brewers lead.

It wasn't until the fourth run crossed the plate that he opted to go to his bullpen.

This is why, for as much as it is hated among baseball fans, especially old-school baseball fans, teams religiously follow pitch counts. It is why teams do not want their starters to face a lineup for a third time. No matter how dominant a pitcher is through the first five or six innings, or the first two times through an order, the deeper they go into a game and the more hitters see them, the more likely it is somebody gets to them. 

Throughout his career, Snell has rarely pitched beyond the sixth inning and rarely sees hitters a third time. When he has, his numbers have been worse than the first two times through.

Entering this season, opposing hitters hit .197 with a .576 OPS vs. Snell the first time through. They hit .217 with a .670 OPS the second time through. The third time through, it goes up to .232 with a .698 OPS. While those are still good, it's obviously trending in the wrong direction.

The lesson here: No matter how good your pitcher is, and no matter how well they are throwing, the numbers are what they are. It is one of the big analytical changes in baseball over the past 20-25 years. There is a reason for it.