Five bold predictions for the NBA's Western Conference

Everyone has Thunder-Spurs II penciled in. The rest of the West has other plans.

Last season's Western Conference came down to a seven-game slugfest between the Thunder and Spurs, and everyone expects a sequel. But the rest of the West didn't sit still. Minnesota traded moodiness for giddiness, swapping Julius Randle for LaMelo Ball. Houston's backcourt got steadier with Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart. The Lakers let LeBron James walk and rebuilt their roster around Luka Doncic.

With opening night approaching, here are five bold predictions for the West.

1. Cooper Flagg makes All-NBA, and the Mavericks are the West's surprise playoff team

Vegas has Dallas at 34.5 wins. Only the Clippers, Grizzlies, Pelicans and Kings have lower totals in the West. I'm smashing the over.

Flagg's rookie season was historic. He averaged 21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 4.5 APG, became the youngest player ever to score 50 in a game and joined Michael Jordan as the only rookies to lead their team in total points, rebounds, assists and steals. He did it on a 26-56 team that played without Kyrie Irving all season and had Anthony Davis for just 20 games before trading him.

Now Irving is back from his torn ACL as the ultimate No. 2 option. Masai Ujiri runs the front office. Dusty May, fresh off a national title at Michigan, is the head coach. And the roster has wings and bigs to spare.

Everything is primed for Flagg to make the kind of Year 2 leap we've seen from LeBron, Kevin Durant and Doncic.

2. Luka wins the scoring title — and the Lakers still can't win a second-round game

Doncic led the league with 33.5 PPG last season and made his sixth All-NBA First Team. Then he strained his hamstring in April, missed the entire postseason and watched the Thunder sweep the Lakers in the second round.

With LeBron gone, this is Luka's team in every sense. Rob Pelinka re-signed Austin Reaves, landed Walker Kessler in a sign-and-trade and added Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton and Sandro Mamukelashvili. Expect Luka to repeat as scoring champ — and flirt with 35 a night.

Also expect the same ending: no second-round wins. Unless the Lakers shock everyone and finish in the top two, escaping the first round means beating the Spurs, Thunder, Timberwolves, Rockets or Nuggets. I don't see it.

When they bow out again, someone will ask: Did the Lakers really win the Luka-AD trade? The answer will still be a resounding yes. But ownership's decision to keep Pelinka — and Pelinka's unwillingness to push his chips in when he had Luka, LeBron and Reaves — will be what ultimately failed the Lakers in the Luka era.

3. Billy Donovan becomes the most interesting man in the West

Nobody in the conference has a stranger job than San Antonio's new lead assistant.

Donovan spent the last 11 seasons as an NBA head coach in Oklahoma City and Chicago, won two national titles at Florida and is one of the most respected minds in the game. Now he sits next to Mitch Johnson, a 39-year-old who just led the Spurs to 62 wins and the NBA Finals.

That plays out one of two ways.

Best case: Donovan fully unleashes Victor Wembanyama's offense. Wemby cruises to MVP and grabs a stranglehold on the Best Player on the Planet belt. The Spurs win 65-plus games, remain the Thunder's kryptonite (8-4 against OKC last season, playoffs included) and avenge their Finals loss.

Worst case: The Spurs sputter out of the gate. The De'Aaron Fox-Stephon Castle-Dylan Harper point guard timeshare becomes a chemistry killer, and Wemby's offense stagnates. Donovan becomes the Tyronn Lue to Johnson's David Blatt, replacing the young, but successful, head coach midseason. Firing a coach midseason would be very un-Spurs. Then again, so is hiring a big-name head coach to sit second chair.

4. The Thunder and Spurs run away with the regular season — but the rematch won't happen, because this is the Year of the Ant-Man

Whatever happens on San Antonio's bench, it would be shocking if the Spurs and Thunder don't run away with the West's regular season. Both are loaded with young stars, depth and veteran role players.

But Thunder-Spurs II won't happen. Houston or Minnesota will crash the party in the second round.

Houston has star power (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun), athleticism and defense (Amen Thompson, Tari Eason), rebounding (Steven Adams) and — unlike last season, when it won 52 games without a steady point guard — two proven playoff veterans running the offense. The Rockets are also a little desperate with Durant now 38, and they have trade assets, including swap rights with Brooklyn in next summer's draft. If there's a year for them to break through, it's this one.

Still, if I had to pick one spoiler, give me the Wolves. This feels like an Ant-Man MVP season. Anthony Edwards posted career highs in scoring (28.8 PPG), field goal percentage (48.9) and 3-point percentage (39.9) while serving as Minnesota's de facto point guard. It ended with an injury during what could have been another conference finals run.

Now he has LaMelo and Ayo Dosunmu to create for him and space the floor, rather than Randle clogging the paint. It's set up for a signature season from the league's most charismatic star.

5. Draymond Green swings the title race … for another team

Golden State's season fell apart in January when Jimmy Butler tore his ACL. Days later, Stephen Curry hurt his knee. The Warriors finished 37-45 and missed the playoffs.

Now Curry is 38 and reportedly still dealing with runner's knee, Butler will miss the start of the season, Kristaps Porzingis is still battling a mysterious illness, and the Warriors are hard-capped at the second apron. I don't see this group staying healthy or competitive enough to justify standing pat.

That makes Green a fascinating trade chip. He declined his $27.7 million player option to give Golden State room to chase LeBron, then re-signed for the same one-year number when that fell through. That's a $27.7 million expiring contract attached to a four-time champion and former Defensive Player of the Year who can still swing a playoff series.

It would probably take a three- or four-team trade, but a certain friend of Draymond's just took his talents to the City of Brotherly Love — and would love to have him. Yes, Philadelphia, I'm looking at you. Fire up the Klutch trade machine.