
The NASCAR Cup Series season reaches its conclusion with the title on the line in the sport's return to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Championship Race on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Here are three big questions ahead of the season finale.
The short answer is not much. Courtesy of an all-time Chase performance with three wins and six top-fives in the nine races so far, Larson only needs nine points (out of a possible 76) to clinch his third Cup championship and second in a row.
According to The Athletic's Jeff Gluck, Larson just needs to finish third or better in the opening stage or score eight stage points to win the Bill France Cup, regardless of where he finishes in the race.
If Kyle Larson finishes third or better in Stage 1 next week, he could clinch the title early in the race. He only needs to score eight stage points to become the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) November 1, 2026
Even after going a lap down at Martinsville and pocketing zero stage points, Larson still finds himself in the driver's seat as the championship leader. That is even after he took a five-point lead into the chaotic Talladega Superspeedway and came away with the clutch win to put the pressure back on the competition.
It just so happens that Homestead-Miami returns as the title race after previously serving as the title-decider from 2002-19. With two wins in the last four races there, this is simply Larson's title to lose if he keeps his nose clean on Sunday.
Technically, Bell (-67) and Hamlin (-70) have a chance considering the maximum points awarded for a race is 76. However, they are going to need to put together a perfect race and hope some adversity trips Larson up, as it did at Phoenix three weeks ago.
For Bell, his Chase could not have started better with a Southern 500 win at Darlington. That said, it has been a season of near-misses for the Norman, Oklahoma, native, and that has especially been the case the last two weeks with a spin coming to pit road at Talladega and a costly speeding penalty that put him behind at Martinsville.
Hamlin, meanwhile, has seen his advantage coming into the Chase completely disappear due to numerous mistakes from the driver and team. He has not been bad, but the season-long dominance has completely disappeared following a "killer" first stage that took him out of contention at Martinsville.
Both drivers are mathematically alive for the title, but it is going to take a lot of help if they are going to have a shot at their first Cup Series championship.
While all the focus will be on Larson trying to close out his third title and whether Bell or Hamlin can catch some breaks in their pursuit of him, let's not forget about the rest of the field in the final race of the season.
Just 49 points separate fourth-place Chase Briscoe from seventh-place Ryan Blaney, while 63 points are between fifth-place driver Joey Logano and ninth-place William Byron. Farther down the standings, only 11 points separate Chase Elliott (10th) and Bubba Wallace (13th), while 15 points stand between the bottom three drivers, Ryan Preece, Daniel Suarez and Chris Buescher.
As important as the championship fight is, the rest of the Chase field can still make one last statement to end the season and improve their final position in the standings.
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