4 things to listen for at the 2026 MLB GM meetings in Las Vegas

I'm going to Las Vegas on Monday for Major League Baseball's general managers meetings, and I'm going with a simple question: Does anybody in this sport actually want to do anything before Dec. 1?

So far, the answer looks like no.

Free agency has been open for a week. So far, there hasn't been one major signing or trade of consequence. The first real transaction of the winter came on Friday, when the Washington Nationals gave center fielder Jacob Young a four-year, $23 million extension, with an $8 million option for a fifth year. It's a fair deal for a good player ... and it tells you everything about where this offseason stands. Yes, the headline move of November so far is a team keeping its own center fielder.

The clock is the story. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and when it goes, everything freezes — signings, trades and even contact between teams and players. The Winter Meetings, set for Dec. 7-9 in San Diego, would not happen. So the smart play, the one everybody predicted, was a frenzy. Get your business done in November before the doors close.

Instead, it's been silence so far, so here's what I'll be listening for in Vegas.

4 talking points for the MLB GM meetings in Las Vegas

First, Tarik Skubal. He's the best player available, a two-time Cy Young winner and ESPN insider Jeff Passan reports he's expected to sign before the CBA expires for a record contract. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are the names you hear most. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reports the New York Yankees are "thinking about" making a run. If Skubal signs before Dec. 1, the dam breaks. If he doesn't, nobody is signing anything of consequence until there's a new deal, and nobody knows when that is.

Second, Teruaki Sato. The Japanese slugger must sign before Dec. 1 as well (unless the owners and players somehow avoid a lockout) and the Dodgers, Mets, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and Yankees are all linked to him. His 45-day posting window is a deadline inside a deadline. If he signs fast, it tells you the market is alive. If he waits, it tells you even the players with the most leverage are reading the same calendar as everyone else.

Third, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa just lost the World Series in five games to the Milwaukee Brewers, and now MLB insider Bob Nightengale says the Rays could jump back into the Ketel Marte trade talks, with about $85 million left on his deal. I wrote this week that Tampa is the one team that can actually land him. The question in Vegas is whether the Rays act like a team whose window is open, or one that is about to sell a piece of it before the lights go out.

Fourth, the qualifying offers. Only eight went out this winter in what USA Today called the weakest class in at least a decade. Those eight players have until Nov. 17 to accept or decline a one-year, $23.15 million deal. In a normal winter, most of them decline without a second thought. In this winter, with a lockout coming, $23.15 million guaranteed for one year looks a lot different than it did a month ago. How many of them take the money and wait?

The GM meetings are usually where MLB decision-markers start talking in the offseason. This year, I'm going to find out if anybody has anything to say just yet or whether the whole sport is just waiting for Dec. 1 to shut the lights off.