Day One in Las Vegas: MLB's lockout clock is louder than the hot stove

LAS VEGAS — Here in Sin City, it's a point of discussion whether the bigger story this week is about the hot stove or the potential lockout that is coming at Major League Baseball's calendar like a tsunami.

MLB's general manager meetings run Monday through Thursday at the Aria. In a normal year, those four days would be days of groundwork, handshakes and conversations that turn into deals a month or two from now ... but this isn't a normal year. MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and a lockout is all but certain to follow. That leaves 22 days, and every conversation in this building has that date hanging over it.

You can feel it in the Tarik Skubal talks. He's the best pitcher on the market, a two-time Cy Young winner, and the New York Mets are already reportedly in deep. SNY's Chelsea Janes reported over the weekend that New York could be prepared to go seven years and $340 million. That's roughly $48.5 million a season, which would make Skubal the highest-paid pitcher in the game.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who got him from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, are the other team in the fight. While Skubal's camp would like nine or 10 years, the Mets, Janes said, aren't going past seven.

Skubal turns 30 later this month, and his arm history (Tommy John in college, a flexor tendon operation in 2022 and a loose particle removed from his elbow this year) is why some teams are wary of a record deal at all, as ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reported. But the smart money says he signs before Dec. 1, for somewhere between $325 million and $400 million ... because that's what the calendar demands.

Could a potential MLB lockout speed up trades and deals this week?

MLB insider Jon Morosi reported trade discussions are further along than usual at this point in the offseason, and the names are already out there. The Phillies are shopping Trea Turner (33 years old, a .242 average this season, seven years and roughly $27 million a year left on his deal) and Brandon Marsh along with him. Ketel Marte's name is also back in the trade conversation.

However, there's a wrinkle. With nobody sure what the 2027 season will look like, players in the final year of their contracts may not be traded for prospects this month. Teams want certainty, and right now, the only certainty is the CBA's expiration date and time.

The honest version of this week is less dramatic than the lockout talk suggests. MLB insider Bob Nightengale reported executives expect the blueprint to look a lot like 2021, with plenty of conversations, groundwork laid, nobody walking out of the Aria with a major acquisition by week's end. The frenzy (if it comes) comes in the two weeks after this one, when the deadline is close enough to force hands.

Monday was about no deals, no surprises and a hotel filling up with executives who know exactly how much time they have left before the CBA expires. The hot stove may have to wait, but the clock won't.