La Niña Will Not Reverse Climate Change

Unlike many La Niña forecasts for Winter '24/'25, WMO emphasizes that the effects of human-induced climate change still outweigh the slight cooling of the Pacific Ocean during a La Niña cycle.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo states, “Since June 2023 we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."

The organization notes that the past nine years have been the warmest on record despite a multi-year La Niña from 2020 to early 2023. Saulo stresses that widespread extreme weather conditions have prevailed, a symptom of human-induced climate change affecting the Earth.

Some weather experts, like meteorologist Chris Tomer, believe that La Niña will occur during Winter '24/'25, but that it will be a 'weak' or 'lite' version of the weather phenomenon. Tomer indicates that this could cause variances in how a typical La Niña affects North America's weather, but WMO believes that Winter '24/'25 could be slightly more predictable.

"Predictions for large-scale rainfall patterns partially align with the typical impacts observed during the early stage of La Niña conditions, including above-normal rainfall in far northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Greater Horn of Africa and the Sahel, parts of southeast Asia and central Maritime Continent," WMO writes.

As a global organization, WMO doesn't drill down into the weather of North America's ski resorts, but their prediction of 'above-normal rainfall' for regions that typically experience more moisture during La Niña, is a good sign for our friends in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. They're certainly keeping their fingers crossed that La Niña will lead to a long, cold, and deep ski season.

WMO has identified the following key messages to take away from their September 2024 update:

• La Niña has relative short-term cooling impact on global climate
• It generally has opposite impacts to El Niño
• Longer-term global warming continues
• “Neutral” El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions currently prevail
• Early warnings and seasonal predictions help climate adaptation

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