2024-25 Premier League season stock watch

After finishing second in each of the last two campaigns, Arsenal were expected to be a title challenger. The Gunners are… sorta. Arsenal are part of a mass of teams sitting on 19 or 18 points, but thanks to goal differential are fourth in the table. Though the Gunners are falling off the pace, they should feel confident about finishing in the top four, and they could easily finish second again. That’s not the goal, but that is steady.

Villa finished in the top four last season and as such are getting to enjoy playing in the Champions League. That’s exciting, in large part because that is not the norm for the club. Villa have 18 points and a straight-up even goal differential. Finishing in the top four is possible, but at least the team seems likely to finish in the top half of the table.

This is Bournemouth’s third season back in the Premier League after a brief return to the Championship. The Cherries finished 12th last season, but the team also moved Dominic Solanke, their best player. Well, Bournemouth sit on 15 points with an even goal differential, but have also beaten Manchester City and Arsenal already. If the team avoids relegation, which seems likely, those wins will be exciting highlights of a totally fine campaign.

Don’t worry, not every team sits at steady. Blame the alphabet. Brentford keep things interesting, picking up five wins, but also five losses. Only once has the club drawn. Brentford are still new to being a Premier League team, so just being out of the relegation fight is sufficient. That’s where it sits, and the club has a shot at finishing in the top half of the table for the second time.

Brighton have had some good seasons since hitting the Premier League, and we’re used to the club being in the top half of the table. Last season, though, it finished 11th. The club and manager Roberto De Zerbi parted ways and Brighton hired 31-year-old Fabian Hurzeler as manager. Brighton also facilitated a move for metronome midfielder Pascal Gross back to Germany. This had the feeling of a reset season where simply not being in the relegation battle would be fine. Well, Brighton are one of the teams on 19 points and are vying to play European football next season.

Chelsea did it again. The team refused to chill, hired yet-another new manager, and transferred a bunch of guys out and a bunch of guys in. And yet, for all the eye rolling that elicits, the Blues are succeeding. Chelsea are tops among the teams on 19 or 18 points thanks to a plus-8 goal differential, and are third in the table. Cole Palmer remains awesome. Chelsea sit as the top team in London, and that’s a tick in an upward direction.

Not every club can be sitting in a steady, or positive, place. After Roy Hodgson stepped down last season and was replaced at manager by Oliver Glasner, Crystal Palace turned it around and finished 10th. Well, Glasner could not keep the magic up. If the season ended today, Palace would be relegated. It has won once all season and has seven points. Now, we aren’t picking Palace to be sent down, but the top half of the table is out of the question at this point.

Last season Everton were sweating out a relegation battle, but the club had been docked points due to finance-related sanctions. Many figured that Everton would be fine this season without any penalties hitting them and return to the land of the mid-table. Instead, the Toffees are on 10 points. That is three points above relegation. Jordan Pickford is having to save the team again, as Everton can’t score. Sorry, Everton fans, you may be sweating it out again this year.

Expecting Leicester City to avoid relegation, one Premier League club from last year had to be pegged to go down. Fulham seemed primed to be in the battle to avoid that fate. At this juncture, we’ll cop to being wrong about that. Helped by Bernd Leno in net, Fulham have 18 points and a plus-3 goal differential. Barring a collapse, which seems unlikely, Fulham do not have to worry about the relegation battle.

Ipswich have been bad. They will probably be relegated. However, we expected Ipswich to be bad. It was in League One two seasons ago. Hey, Ipswich are even technically out of the relegation zone on eight points, one ahead of Palace. Granted, the club also has a minus-10 goal differential and a single win. We expect Ipswich to go down, but it hasn’t looked any worse than we expected. This has not been a Sheffield United last season situation.

It was a bit surprising when Leicester got relegated, and not surprising at all that it jumped right back into the Premier League. That’s why we figured it would stick around and avoid yo-yoing. The Foxes have had the same season as Everton. It has 10 points and a minus-7 goal differential as well. Of course, the difference is that Leicester are newly promoted, and that’s why it has a steady stock and not a down stock.

Liverpool have been a fixture in the top four for years, with a title not all that long ago and plenty of European success. That all came under Jurgen Klopp, though. When Klopp stepped away from managing and was replaced by Arne Slot, most expected at least a slight drop off. Few, if any, were expecting disaster, but maybe Liverpool wouldn’t be in the title race. Well…Jurgen who? Slot’s squad is 9-1-1 with a plus-15 point differential and are five points clear of the rest of the league. There’s a lot of season left, but at this point Liverpool are definitely a title contender, and likely the title favorite.

We are, of course, grading on a curve. Man City are sitting second in the league with 23 points, with seven wins on the season. This is a club that expects to win the title every single season, though. That happens when you win six of the last seven titles. Right now, though, City have lost two games in a row, and to Bournemouth and Brighton at that, and have dealt with a number of injury issues. Manchester City are not the favorite to win the Premier League title, and that definitely counts as its stock going down.

Here’s a good rule of thumb: The first team that fires its manager during the season definitely has the arrow pointing down on its stock. Not only did Man United give Erik ten Hag the boot, but the whole thing played out clumsily. Many thought Man U would, and should, fire ten Hag after last season. Instead, maybe overreacting to an FA Cup win, the club extended ten Hag for a season, and then fired him before we even hit November.

Picking up a couple wins in its last two outings saved Newcastle from a “stock down” fate. Yes, Newcastle are nouveau riche, but the team’s ownership hasn’t thrown money around like PSG or Man City. It has 18 points and a plus-2 goal differential. There’s a solid chance it will be playing European football next season. That’ll suffice…for this campaign. The clock is starting to tick, though.

After years in the Championship, Forest returned to the Premier League three seasons ago. In each of the last two seasons, the club has barely avoided relegation. Forest haven’t yet finished above 16th. That will happen this season. Paced by Chris Wood, the club is on 19 points and thanks to a plus-5 goal differential sits fifth in the table. Forest are also the only team to beat Liverpool. No club’s stock has climbed higher.

As the team that earned promotion through the playoff, nobody was going to be surprised if Southampton went back down. Oh, that is going to happen. Southampton have been the worst club in the Premier League to this point, with one win, one draw, and nine losses. Southampton’s minus-14 goal differential is worst as well. Like Burnley last year, Southampton have not adjusted its style to account for the change in talent level and as such is getting blown off the pitch.

What a bananas season. Spurs have a plus-10 goal differential. That’s second-best in the Premier League. Tottenham also have the same 5-1-5 record as Brentford. Spurs sit in 10th and in its last game became the first club to lose to Ipswich this season. In fact, they are also the only team to lose to Palace. You can’t be a team with Champions League dreams and have results like those.

David Moyes is probably feeling a smidge smug right now, and we say he can enjoy that feeling while it’s viable. Fans of West Ham wanted Moyes gone for years, believing he was holding the club back. Well, under Julen Lopetegui, the club sits in 14th with 12 points and a minus-6 goal differential. West Ham finished ninth last season, so things are not heading in a good direction.

If a club goes down that was in the Premier League last season, it will likely be Wolves. The team has six points with only one win. That win came against Southampton at home. This means the club has now enjoyed the easiest fixture on the schedule. Wolves has a minus-11 goal differential having allowed a league-high 27 goals. Being en route to relegation means we end this assessment on a downward trend.