Analysing Danny Welbeck as Joao Pedro's Stand-In

Many people expected Danny Welbeck to deputize against Tottenham on Premier League match day 8 in absence of Joao Pedro. Instead, Xabi Alonso opted for Morgan Rogers in an unusual false nine role.

Even during storms, Chelsea have always found some calm in an assured victory against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge. Not only did Chelsea lose 2-0, but they were outclassed, bringing Alonso’s decision to leave out Welbeck into disrepute. 

When given the opportunity against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup four days later, the English striker did not exactly help his cause with a quiet performance which culminated in a 68th minute substitution. With Joao Pedro’s absence set to continue for a "few weeks", are there any merits to Alonso giving Welbeck another chance to prove himself as an able stand-in?

Why Welbeck didn’t start against Spurs

At 35, the former Brighton man and Premier League winner is not as bustling as Joao Pedro. Injuries from his younger years further hamper his intensity, requiring caution to prevent any reoccurrence. Looking to exploit De-Zerbi’s penchant for building out from the back with a high press, it’s not difficult to understand why Alonso left Welbeck on the bench.

Chelsea latched on man-to-man, with Geovany Quenda, Rogers, Palmer and Pedro Neto forming the first line. Spurs’ response was a 4-3-3 shape and an active Antonín Kinský in build-up. 

James Maddison, Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes would orchestrate the Blues’ downfall with a 3v2 overload against Moises Caicedo and Jordan Henderson. Maxence Lacroix tailed Maddison to match the numbers, but the shrewd English playmaker would drag his marker into uncomfortable situations, facilitating Spurs’ control of the game and opening channels in Chelsea’s backline.

A lack of control has been Chelsea’s story thus far in the Premier League, averaging 46.4% possession, the seventh lowest. It’s a price Alonso has willingly paid for a prolific, direct attacking unit. But with Joao Pedro absent, they now lack elements that were crucial to its success: his chemistry with Palmer and Rogers, and his power, positioning and intensity.

Rogers pressed in high gear against Spurs but the Blues missed a pure striker. A prime example was in the 5th minute when Palmer delivered a cross into the corridor of uncertainty, but Rogers was slow to pounce. Lacking lethality in the box, Chelsea allowed Spurs to grow into the game.

How did Alonso respond against Liverpool?

Alonso sought more control in the middle of the park against Liverpool, deploying a box consisting of Rogers, Lavia, Henderson and Caicedo. However, Liverpool’s proactiveness off the ball forced Chelsea to up the tempo. The Blues struggled with progression. Welbeck tried to get involved by dropping deep to link play and open channels for Neto’s out-in runs but Virgil Van Dijk gave him no rest. 

Welbeck also spent much of the game away from goal, thanks to Liverpool’s high line. He was substituted in the 68th minute after registering zero shots and a single touch in the Reds’ box.

What’s the best way to use Welbeck?

For Welbeck to yield dividends, Chelsea must find a way to get him close to goal. At this stage of his career, his strengths are as a pure striker — finishing off shots in or near the box, attacking blind spots for tap-ins and banging in headers. In his final season with Brighton, 11 of his 13 Premier League goals came from inside the box.

A midfield that can keep and progress the ball is essential to his success. Since Enzo Fernandez’s sale to Manchester City, Chelsea have been missing a maestro in the middle of the park. Palmer could play this role, but the Blues will be losing out on the danger he poses up top. Perhaps, now is the time for Alonso to finally push the Estêvão button. Whether by pinning the opponent back or releasing runners like Neto Chelsea will get the most out of Welbeck if they can create dangerous situations in the final third. 

Off the ball, Chelsea can cut off the central channels with a compact 4-4-2 block to preserve his energy. However, for Welbeck to be in prime positions on the break, he might have to stay up, leaving Chelsea a man light in defence. 

United is the perfect game to build around Welbeck’s strengths

Welbeck loves to play his boyhood club, Manchester United. Since departing Old Trafford in 2014, he has scored six times against them in the Premier League, the record for an ex-player. 

Given United’s lack of inventiveness against a block under Michael Carrick, Alonso might be tempted to concede possession and catch them on the break. However, the prospect of pinning them back and picking apart their defence would be equally intriguing, especially if Carrick puts his eggs in the counter-attacking basket. 

Either way, if Alonso is to capitalize on Welbeck’s proclivity for goals against United, he must remember the Englishman is not a like-for-like Pedro replacement, and requires a level of compromise to excel.

Emmanuel Emegha is available, having returned from injury against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup. His youth and vibrance notwithstanding, thrusting him into a high-pressure situation this early could backfire. His penalty miss in the recent Carabao Cup shootout suggests Alonso needs to be gentle with his integration into the team.

Welbeck’s first audition as a Joao Pedro stand-in in the Premier League ended in a 3-0 loss against Brentford. He’ll be hoping for a second take and ultimately a fruitful outcome against a Manchester United side in turmoil at the moment.