Arsenal v PSG: A Season-defining moment

It’s hard to overstate how important Arsenals semi-final v PSG is. It’s not just season defining but era-defining - a judgment on the whole Mikel Arteta reign. It will perhaps answer the question, are Arsenal getting better, standing still or going backwards?

Should Arsenal become champions of Europe - beating Real Madrid, PSG and Barcelona/Inter Milan along the way - that’s an obvious win for team “progress”. Beating PSG but losing the final could be deemed about a wash. But defeat in the semis will put the spotlight back on what has been a step in the wrong direction in the league. Liverpool are champions and Arsenal currently sit in 2nd place with 67 points, 10 points behind where they were at the equivalent stage last season.

There’s no doubt that Arsenal have improved significantly under Arteta. The numbers don’t lie. He inherited a team in 10th place and has guided them to 2nd place three years in a row, pushing Man City all the way in two of those seasons and racking up an impressive 89 points (23/24) and 86 points (22/23). Historically that’s enough points to win the EPL in most seasons.

He's tactically astute and innovative (see Arsenal’s All or Nothing documentary on Amazon) as well as those amazing set piece statistics. Notably, he improves players and has got the best out of the remarkable Bukayo Saka. He’s mostly succeeded in the transfer market including smash hits such as Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard and in particular Gabriel Magalhaes & William Saliba – two of the best center backs in the EPL, if not the world.

But there’s been some obvious black marks in that area too with Arsenal’s failure to buy a reliable goal scorer being the most striking as well as the questionable decision to bring in Raheem Stirling this season.

The caveat of course has been the injuries – notably to their talisman Saka and Ødegaard. Everyone’s had injuries but Arsenal’s squad has been stretched thin and the cover has been inadequate. Still, imagine if Liverpool had lost say Salah and Gravenberch. Things might have been very different. 

It's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes. Maybe it’s unfair to blame Arteta. Perhaps the transfer failings have been the board’s fault and we should instead be crediting Arteta for figuring out a genius makeshift solution in converting Mikel Moreno into a highly effective striker.

But the reality is that in the EPL, some of Arsenal’s numbers are disappointing. 13 draws; the most number of red cards of any team (5); and crucially, that points total. All this in a season in which Manchester City capitulated and the title was seemingly there for the taking. Instead it’s been Liverpool who stepped up, winning those scrappy games that have cost Arsenal so many points this season with all those draws.

The Champions League will define everything. In some ways, Arsenal's rise under Arteta has been similar to Klopp’s under Liverpool, It took Liverpool winning the Champions League in 2019 before they rose to the top of the EPL next season.

The other positive for Arteta has been the integration of some incredibly bright new talents in Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri. IF - and it’s a big IF - Arsenal can recruit well in the summer they will be the favorites to claim the EPL trophy they crave next season.

So while the narrative of this year will be determined by the Champions League, the tenure of Arteta is better judged by next year’s EPL campaign.

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