The biggest day of Paris Saint-Germain's season so far is almost upon us, with Premier League side Arsenal hosting the French champions at the Emirates Stadium for the first leg of this Champions League semi-final.
With the tournament looking incredibly open this season, many think that this could finally be the year that PSG wins the Champions League and gets that particular monkey off its back.
Luis Enrique's side started the tournament very badly and ended up needing to beat Stade Brest over two legs in a playoff just to reach the knockouts. Since then, they have beaten two Premier League teams, Liverpool and Aston Villa, to reach this stage.
As for Arsenal, their League Phase was much smoother and they have since beaten PSV Eindhoven and Real Madrid with relative ease. This tie makes it a certainty that one team which has never won the Champions League will be competing in the final, with a match against Barcelona or Inter to come later in the year.
From Paris to London! #ARSPSG I @ChampionsLeague pic.twitter.com/4zPvr3jxSI
— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_English) April 28, 2025
In terms of form coming into this one, PSG did not have the best preparation as they lost for the first time in Ligue 1 this season. A 3-1 defeat at home to OGC Nice was a surprise result, but all the attention has swiftly turned to this match. As for Arsenal, they last played on Wednesday night against Crystal Palace and only managed a 2-2 draw.
Let's have a look at the odds and predictions for the upcoming Champions League showdown. (Odds via Draftkings)
Moneyline:
Arsenal: +115
Draw: +245
PSG: +245
Both teams to score:
Yes: -145
No: +115
Double chance:
Arsenal or tie: -320
Arsenal or PSG: -320
Tie or PSG: -145
Total goals:
Arsenal: 1.5 (Over +100, Under -145)
PSG: 1.5 (Over +170, Under -260)
One of these teams has been scoring for fun this season, whilst a lack of goals has been the obvious problem with another one. There is an element of unstoppable force meeting the immovable object in this Champions League tie.
In 34 Premier League matches this season, Arsenal has scored 63 goals. PSG in Ligue 1, meanwhile, has scored 84 goals in 31 matches. It would be right to point out that Arsenal is playing against better teams each week on average than PSG, but a 21-goal gulf with three more games is certainly intriguing.
The Parisian squad for #ARSPSG in the @ChampionsLeague semi-final first leg. #UCL pic.twitter.com/SoEwnq46Wx
— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_English) April 28, 2025
Arsenal has the best defence in the Premier League, although Ghanaian midfielder Thomas Partey is suspended for this first leg at the Emirates thanks to a yellow card he picked up in the second game against Real Madrid in the quarter-final. That could leave Arsenal a little more open in midfield than normal, which is a situation that the likes of Desire Doue, Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia can take advantage of.
Partey's suspension causes extra disruption for Arsenal as, with Jorginho injured, the expectation is that Declan Rice will drop into the No.6 role and Mikel Merino, the recent makeshift striker, will move back into midfield. That scenario, coupled with injuries to other players like Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori, Kai Havertz, Gabriel and more, means that Arsenal could struggle to tackle this match in the way they want.
A special Champions League night in N5.
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) April 28, 2025
Let's make it happen again. pic.twitter.com/2AasEbnygT
There will be an impetus on Arsenal to get forward and attack as the home team, and with the midfield reshaped and Gabriel not at the back, the immense pace and trickery of PSG's front line could get more joy than Real Madrid did at the Emirates.
Winner: PSG
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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