Checking in with the Champions League post-league phase

Condolences to Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys, the two clubs to lose all eight games they played. Although, Red Bull Salzburg had the worst goal differential minus-22, though it managed to win one game. You will notice all three of those clubs were from one-bid countries not known for high-quality football leagues. The eliminated-teams list is full of those. Sparta Prague, Sturm Graz, Red Star Belgrade/Crvena Zvezda, and poor Shakhtar Donetsk are all out. However, Dinamo Zagreb had the toughest beat. With 11 points in eight games, three teams that moved on had the same number of points. With a minus-7 goal differential, the Croatian cexxlub lost out.

Is Girona being eliminated really a surprise? It was a big surprise the club qualified out of Spain, but the club is mid-table in La Liga, and the fact it only picked up three points may be surprising. Bologna is top half of the table in Italy again, but was also a bit of a surprise to qualify for the Champions League. Germany gives us the two biggest surprises. Both Stuttgart and Champions League staple RB Leipzig are out. They are both fighting to return to the Champions League for next season and there’s a good chance one of them will make it happen. The biggest surprise here, comfortably, is the Leipzig-based club.

Liverpool is the favorite to win the Premier League, the best league in the world, so it is no surprise it finished in the top eight, and not even surprising it topped the table. Arsenal, Liverpool’s toughest competition in England, is no surprise either. Barcelona has fallen off the pace in La Liga a smidge but, c’mon, it’s Barcelona. Atletico Madrid has been a Champions League force under Diego Simeone and is having a particularly good year in Spain as well. Inter Milan is fighting Napoli for the title in Italy, to the surprise of nobody. Lastly, while Bayern Leverkusen hasn’t necessarily been a force in Europe in recent years, the club is coming off a campaign wherein it literally lost zero times in the Bundesliga, so yeah, no surprise there.

First, it’s nice that every team in the top eight finished with more points than the clubs in the playoff. Nobody eked in on goal differential. There are two teams left to tackle. A French club qualified for the round of 16 out of the League Phase and it is, of course, Lille. Wait, Lille? Yes, while PSG has separated itself from the rest of Ligue 1, it’s Lille that finished in the top eight. That’s huge for the club. Finally, when Aston Villa qualified for the Champions League this season, it was for the first time in decades. The feeling was of the “Hey, enjoy it” variety, and indeed Villa will really be hoping the Premier League grabs a fifth Champions League spot for next season to give it any plausible chance of qualifying. Qualifying for the playoff round seemed like the ceiling. Instead, Aston Villa finished in the top eight over some of the biggest clubs in Europe.

We’ll start with the clear top matchup of the playoff round. Both of these clubs were expected to finish in the top eight. Instead, two of the best clubs of the last decade meet here. City is having a “down” season (the product of its own lofty standards), and taking down the titans of the Champions League won’t be easy. Real Madrid is the defending champ, and with 15 titles is well ahead of any other club all-time.

On the flip side, this matchup seems like the easiest to predict. It’s not just that Club Brugge is a Belgian side. The club was the last to make the cut, only making it because its minus-4 goal differential was better than Dinamo Zagreb’s minus-7. Atalanta, meanwhile, finished ninth with a plus-14 goal differential and is going to finish no worse than third in Serie A.

We have an all-French battle in this playoff! Again, we can probably guess how this one will go, even if PSG is consistently a Champions League underachiever. The Paris club is running away with Ligue 1, while Brest is mid-table in a second-tier league and closer in points to Le Havre in last than PSG.

AC Milan is second to Real Madrid in terms of Champions League titles, but it’s been a while since the Italian club lifted the trophy. While it will be favored to beat its Dutch opponent, Milan winning the title — or even making a run — this year would be a surprise. It had a middling performance in the league phase, and its ceiling in Serie A is fourth. That being said, Feyenoord seems primed to top out at third in a league that is a step down, so AC Milan does have the edge.

Based on Champions League play, this matchup is quite even. Benfica finished 16th, while Monaco finished 17th. However, the Portuguese club was plus-4, while Monaco was an even zero. Both clubs are also vying to finish second in their respective leagues. In terms of competitiveness, Monaco vs. Benfica may be second only to Man City vs. Real Madrid.

Intrigue abounds here. Sporting is leading the Portuguese league and qualified for the playoff, but as you likely know, its manager Ruben Amorim left for Manchester United at the start of November. Dortmund, long a staple near the top of the Bundesliga, has plummeted to the middle of the table. Niko Kovac was literally just appointed the new manager because Nuri Sahin said “Fire me if you want” and the Dortmund brass said “Sure.” Which club will rally around a fairly new manager better?

PSV actually finished ahead of Juventus in the league phase, though they were just separated by two points and two total goals. The iconic Italian club is not what it once was, but it is still good enough to compete for fourth in Serie A (if it could only turn some draws into wins). Ajax is breathing down PSV’s neck atop the Dutch league, but PSV is lapping the field in terms of goal differential. Unfortunately, it will be without its top goal scorer, the American Ricardo Pepi, thanks to a serious knee injury.

We end with one of the coolest matchups that the Champions League looks to deliver. Bayern Munich needs no introduction. It’s the cornerstone club of one of the biggest leagues in the world and a Champions League staple. Celtic is also a Champions League staple, but the Scottish club plays in a second- or third-tier league and usually was eliminated in the old group stage. In this new format, though, Celtic earned the chance to pull off a major upset. Oh, it would be an upset. Bayern did decidedly better in the league phase and is primed to win the Bundesliga once again. Celtic is running away with the Scottish league but, you know, it’s the Scottish league. Still, Celtic will get to host Bayern Munich in a game with huge implications. That’s cool. That’s what the Champions League is all about.