Chelsea’s two criminal xG underperformers in the league this season

Chelsea’s season stats aren’t that bad, if you go by expected goal difference. But if anything, that’s more damning.

Chelsea have not been good this year, that’s for sure. But the stats show they they perhaps haven’t been as bad as one might think.

By expected goal difference, the Blues are in third. In the table, they’re 9th, and could yet finish even lower.  So what’s going wrong at Stamford Bridge?

xG difference has some worrying warnings for Chelsea

That xG difference means we’re creating good chances and not giving away easy chances. So in a way, it’s concerning that we’re underperforming compared to that. It means we’re not scoring our chances and aren’t defending well when we give one away either.

It’s a sure sign that we’re getting the fundamentals wrong. We have an xG difference of 15.9, but an actual goal difference of 6. Compare that to Manchester United – they’ve got an xG difference of 13.4, but an actual goal difference of 15. They’re slightly outperforming their numbers, while we’re miles behind.

The real culprits are Alejandro Garnacho and Liam Delap. They have one league goal each, with a combined xG of almost 8. Those two along account for a lot of the team’s overall discrepancy.

Xabi Alonso is now being called Chelsea’s “preferred candidate” to be the club’s new coach.

Chelsea are likely to target a centre back this summer, and an option from Serie A seems to be getting pretty serious.