Forget the Rankings: Dortmund's Late Revival Aims to Humble Europe's Elite

According to Opta's Supercomputer, PSG (18.5%) have the best chance of capturing the Club World Cup - the 32-team global tournament that kicks off Saturday. They are followed closely by Manchester City (17.8%); Bayern Munich (12.8%); Inter Milan (12.3%); and Real Madrid (9.8%).

But computers don't win soccer matches and the bookies disagree, making Real Madrid the 4-1 favorites. 

There's no doubt that the European teams are favored, which is natural given their multi-million dollar squads. But there's a number of reasons it might not be the obvious team collecting the trophy. Here's Why.

PSG are coming off their Champions League victory. They've won it all this season. It's psychologically hard to rouse yourself again for a tournament that is likely not as high a priority in their minds. As for that $125m prize for winning...it's a drop in the ocean for their Qatari owners. 

New signings to feature at CWC

Manchester City were trophy-less this season. They've made a number of significant signings in the last week, rebuilding their midfield to include AC Milan's Tijjani Reijnders and Lyon's Rayan Cherki. Both will join the squad for the CWC. While that's exciting, it's also a big ask to expect them to gel immediately. 

Likewise Real Madrid will be experimenting with a new manager in Xabi Alonso and an untested defensive line-up, with Dean Huijsen and Trent Alexander-Arnold having just joined from Bournemouth and Liverpool respectively. 

But the biggest obstacle for many of the top European sides may simply be finding the right levels of motivation and overcoming tired legs after a long season.

The dark horses...

That's why it's worth looking at some of the lesser fancied and potentially hungrier teams. The likes of Atletico Madrid who are always well-drilled and stubborn opponents under Diego Simeone. 

Or perhaps Borussia Dortmund who have been revitalized under new manager Niko Kovǎc. Dortmund were 11th in the German league when he took over in February 2025. He guided them to 4th spot, which included seven wins in their last eight games and one creditable 2-2 draw away at Bayern Munich.

Outside of Europe, the most likely winners are Brazilian teams Palmeiras or Flamengo. Their vital edge may come in being able to adapt to the conditions - likely to be searingly hot in some venues.

The only thing that's clear is that the field is wide open and it's impossible to judge how seriously each team is going to take the tournament. That makes predicting a winner a fool's errand; but it also makes it more likely that it won't be one of the obvious picks of a computer - however super that computer might be.