Four burning questions for the 49ers from the field to ownership

In my opinion, it already has come due. I believe it played a role in both Super Bowl losses under Shanahan. This year, though, the lack of planning is impacting the season.

This is what happens when you don’t have a traditional GM with final personnel control. A traditional GM will plan ahead, drafting in anticipation of needs rather than reacting to them. Shanahan kicked the OL can down the road one year too many, and now the running game is a liability.

Shanahan’s core assumption was that Trent Williams would continue to be All-World, but he’s not All-Santa Clara so far this season.

As Williams goes, so goes the OL, and the 49ers rank 31st in rushing. He’s turned that fateful one year too old. Williams has had a Hall of Fame career, but this year is a noticeable drop-off, which can happen at 37. The fateful one year too old has also hit McCaffrey to impact the run game; more on him in a moment.

Shanahan’s stubborn refusal to draft tackles and a center for years has caught up with him as Williams has finally turned mortal. I think the Niners will at long last take an offensive lineman in the first round next year.

Caleb Lomu of Utah and Trevor Goosby of Texas are my top two 1st round tackles at where the Niners are likely to pick. I used to have Oregon’s Isaiah World in the mix, but he struggled to anchor playing NFL-level talent against Penn State, and had a blatant hold/takedown that was missed by the refs.

What are the Niners going to do with Christian McCaffrey?

McCaffrey is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this year, a drop-off as a runner, but he’s still an impact receiver. McCaffrey’s yards after contact are only at 36% of his 2023 average, and he’s been a non-factor as a runner in the red zone, averaging 0.6 yards per carry.

This question is more contractual. McCaffrey has no guaranteed money after this year, so he has no objection to 100 touches. Shanahan’s options: extend McCaffrey with a new deal that includes guaranteed years. Keep him on the roster in 2026 and then he’s owed $18.4 million. Cut him and take an $18.4 million dead cap hit.

I expect the Niners will want to keep him despite the clear decline. Shanahan will have to face the truth though. McCaffrey can’t be the lead back next year. He has to be replaced there and used primarily as a receiving back. Which is why they need to give rookie Jordan James an opportunity to see what he has.

Should the Niners be concerned about Brock Purdy’s health? And interceptions?

Purdy struggled against Jacksonville with three turnovers as he was clearly not near 100%. Shanahan said Purdy was, “complaining of some real soreness” after the game.

The team has to be honest about Purdy’s performance and the status of his turf toe. The doctors may claim he’s fine, but his play says otherwise, and Purdy says he’s in pain. The Niners need to make a thorough evaluation of his toe, and in my opinion, are better off resting him until he’s 100%.

The interceptions, Purdy goes to the podium post-game and says “I have to do a better job of protecting the ball,” but then nothing changes.

I’ve referenced this before, back in the day, Mike Holmgren met with Joe Montana after games to analyze if interceptions were Montana’s fault. If they determined they were, they took the play out of the playbook.

I would expect that Shanahan and QB coach Mick Lombardi have interception meetings with Purdy to come up with a game plan. Whatever they’ve done hasn’t worked. Eight picks in five games can’t continue.

Some fans are already asking what the timeline is on Purdy. The best financial out is after the 2027 season. I’ve predicted that early 2028 will be moving day for the franchise: new head coach, GM, and quarterback. All the contracts line up.

The X factor is 7th round pick Kurtis Rourke, being redshirted this year. If Rourke develops, he may emerge as an option, eventually. I expect Purdy to be the starter through 2027, but he needs to make smarter decisions with the ball and run more defensively to protect his body.

What should be read into the Yorks selling another stake in ownership?

The Yorks just sold a 3.2% stake in the team to Pete Briger Jr. of equity firm Fortress Investment Group for $272 million. After buying a controlling interest in Leeds United of the English Premier League and Glasgow Rangers in Scotland, and making stadium investments for the Niners and Leeds, the Yorks clearly have liquidity needs.

That may explain the reluctance to invest in free agency this year, and the push to offload expensive deals, particularly Brandon Aiyuk.

Does this mean the Yorks will need to sell soon? I doubt that as this seems to be a one-time thing with several large investments at once. However, the cost of owning an NFL franchise is going up quickly.

The 49ers are now valued at $8.5 billion, which is tied to estate taxes. That requires precise estate management. The league is trying to make it easier for current owners to maintain a controlling interest while taking in new partners. Owners voted in 2024 to allow selling up to a 10% stake to private equity firms. The Yorks have sold 9.4% of the team in the last five months.

Down the road, if the Yorks determine the NFL is too expensive, there’s an obvious local choice to buy the team in Oracle’s Larry Ellison. He’s one of the richest men in the world, who made attempts to buy the Golden State Warriors. When could the Niners be sold? I think it’s many years out, but Ellison is an appealing option when the Yorks decide it’s time to sell.