Inter Milan vs. Atletico Madrid odds, predictions, picks: Champions League match preview

Inter Milan vs. Atletico Madrid Odds

Tuesday, Feb. 20, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Inter Milan

Inter Milan's versatility is the primary reason they are so dangerous to make another deep run in this competition. They've won the Coppa Italia each of the last two seasons and also won the Supercoppa two of the last three years. Combine that with their Champions League performances in the last two years — losing only to Liverpool and Manchester City in highly competitive matches, and Simone Inzaghi's side should be a decided favorite against Atletico.

Their dominance of Serie A is centered around the fact they don't have to completely dominate the field tilt or the possession to be an elite team. Inter are just fourth in possession percentage and actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in pressing intensity and pass completion rate allowed.

Inter aren't built to press heavily or cut down the space between the lines by playing a high defensive line. The defensive line is quite passive, but the back three set up combined with improved ball-winning from midfield despite losing Marcelo Brozovic has led to a defense that has conceded just 18.9 xGA in 24 Serie A matches.

Only one team in the Champions League group stage created more than one expected goal against Inter, and it was Benfica against a rotated Inter side after the Nerazzurri had already clinched a spot in the round of 16. The biggest question entering the season was whether Inter's defense would take a step backward after losing Brozovic, but they've actually improved.

Inter rank first in passes per possession sequence on average, but they also rank first in number of direct attacks. Their ability to both recycle the ball and attack quickly on the break is highlighted by both the passing quality in the team and the major upgrade Marcus Thuram has provided the attack.

Thuram is averaging 0.67 xG + xA per 90 and is the perfect partner to play alongside Lautaro Martinez.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid are in the midst of a second consecutive season in Spain of conceding more than one expected goal per match on average. In their Champions League group, they conceded at least one expected goal in five of the six matches against Celtic, Lazio and Feyenoord. In the home match against Feyenoord, Simeone's side even allowed 20+ shots and 2.4 xG. The main reason that Atletico Madrid's ceiling in this tournament is lower than the legendary squads of years past has been the drop off in elite defensive quality.

If you have the world's best goalkeeper, are elite out of possession defensively and can exploit set pieces in attack, you will be by default an elite tournament team. This current version ranks 16th in shots conceded in Spain, 17th in final third entries, 10th in box entries and 10th in expected threat. There's a natural element of conceding more time and space on the ball when you rank 19th in passes per defensive action and are designed to play this way out of possession.

But there's also a big difference between being first or second in xGA in Spain and being fifth. For example, Inter don't dominate the ball that much in Italy either. They rank just ninth in final third entries and sixth in box entries allowed. Neither of those are elite field tilt numbers, but they also don't allow shots or chances from that dangerous possession. Inter rank first in shots and xG allowed in Serie A.

The biggest question facing Atletico Madrid in the first leg is the health status of Alvaro Morata. He's been added to the traveling squad, but it seems truly questionable whether or not he'll start. He and Antoine Griezmann have carried the Atletico attack all season long. They have 24 combined goals and are both north of 0.5 xG per match.

Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid

Prediction

Inter Milan were as low as -130 to advance over two legs, but the recent market movement toward the Italian side has pushed them out to a -170 favorite to move to the quarterfinal. When you league adjust the numbers in this matchup, Inter grade out as the better squad at both ends of the pitch. This should be a relatively low event match given it is a first leg and Inter's elite defense in transition should make them comfortable slowing down Atletico's attack.

There are some holes in the Inter set piece defensive metrics, but the Nerazzurri are playing like a top three or four team in this competition and should be a bigger favorite at home against Simeone's side. I'd also sprinkle Inter at 19/1 to win this entire competition.

Pick: Inter Milan ML (-130)