PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund odds, picks, predictions: Champions League preview

PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds

Tuesday, Feb. 20, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

PSV Eindhoven

PSV are absolutely running rampant in the Eredivisie this season and putting some downright outrageous underlying numbers. In 22 matches they have a +49.6 expected goal differential and are averaging 3.00 xG per 90 minutes, which is almost unheard of in modern football. Their success has translated to the Champions League as well. They were the second best team in their group and really only played one bad match at Arsenal. After that 4-0 defeat to Arsenal they had a +1.2 xGD in their remaining five matches.

The reason things are going so well for PSV comes down to Peter Bosz’s tactics. He wants his teams to play as fast as possible with their transitions, using vertical passes to try and put pressure on the opposing back line. He encourages his fullbacks to push up and overlap, which allows PSV to overload the last line of defense.

When PSV are out of possession, they are one of the most aggressive pressing teams in Europe. He adopts the same principles of gegenpressing as Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, trying to win the ball back as fast as possible when they lose it. Compared to last season, PSV’s PPDA has gone from 11.7 to 9.9 and their high turnovers per 90 have gone from 9.7 to 11.6.

The biggest thing for PSV is they were able to keep their entire squad together at the January transfer window, despite a lot of bids for some of their best players.

Borussia Dortmund

Somehow, Dortmund finished on top of the group of death. I say somehow because they have been completely underwhelming for a majority of the season in the Bundesliga. They have hit a decent run of form, but it’s mainly been against bottom half of the table teams.

Since they got dominated in a 1-1 draw by PSG to close out the group stage, Dortmund have played one team in the top half of the Bundesliga table. They’ve been unbeaten and their underlying metrics have been pretty good. However, when we focus on what they’ve done defensively against some of the top teams in Germany it gets pretty alarming.

In four matches against Bayern Munich, Leverkusen, Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, Dortmund have conceded 12.3 expected goals. Even during the Champions League group stage they conceded four goals off of 10.6 expected goals.

It always comes back to the same problem Dortmund has had all year. They don’t have any elite ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch and are an average pressing team at best, so good teams have been able to get into their final third with ease and create boat loads of chances.

However, Dortmund haven’t been that great in possession either. They often are indecisive on the ball when they are trying to build out of the back so either teams are able to win the ball off them or they are forced to play a lot of long balls up the pitch. That is likely what they are going to have to do against PSV’s high press, so they are going to lack any type of game control and will be hoping to be effective in transition.

PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund

Prediction

Dortmund have two options here in the first leg. They can try to build out of the back against PSV's intense high pressing, in which they will probably make a lot of mistakes, or they can send the ball long and concede control of the match to the home side.

PSV have been on cruise control in the Eredivisie, but they did recently outplay Feyenoord in a 2-1 win, despite only holding 40% possession, which goes to show that they are a team that can beat you in a lot of different ways when they are in possession.

I have PSV projected as a pretty significant favorite here, so I love the value on them at +120.

Pick: PSV ML (+120 via DraftKings)