Low goal return and underperforming xG – numbers highlight Milan’s striker problem

A lot of topics within football have layers of nuance, but sometimes it is as simple as a team lacking a potent goal scorer, and that applies to AC Milan.

As MilanNews write, against Como it was a defender (Theo Hernandez) and a winger who hadn’t scored in the league for two months (Rafael Leao) who engineered the comeback. Looking at the numbers – and the Cagliari game before – you can see how a finisher is lacking.

The top scorers in Serie A for Milan after 20 games are Alvaro Morata, Christian Pulisic and Tijjani Reijnders with five goals apiece. The American and the Dutchman are doing well given their positions, but the Spaniard – who arrived to replace Olivier Giroud – should be on more.

A comparison with the top league scorers for other Serie A club shows Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui on 13 goals, Fiorentina’s Moise Kean on 11, Inter’s Marcus Thuram on 12 and Napoli’s Romelu Lukaku on 7. Even Empoli’s Simone Esponsito (8) and Udinese Lorenzo Lucca (7) have more.

Only Monza and Parma have their top scorer with fewer goals than Milan’s (4), while Cagliari, Torino and Venezia are at the same level as the Rossoneri, with the Granata however having the alibi of the serious injury to Duvan Zapata.

Another key to understanding the issue is the xG (Expected Goals, i.e. the quality of chances created) ranking compared to the goals actually scored. According to Understat, Milan have an xG of 35.23, third in the league behind only Inter and Atalanta.