Making new predictions for the final Premier League table at the one-third mark

Jurgen Klopp is one of the best managers of all time. He revitalized Liverpool and turned them back into one of the top clubs of Europe. Klopp was also only able to win the Premier League once. Arne Slot might equal him in…one season? Liverpool has key players like Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk who are getting up there in years and need new deals. There’s a saying in American sports: Flags fly forever. In essence, it means any decision that has negative long-term impact can be swept under the rug if you win a title. Liverpool is now the favorite to win the title.

Even with the injuries and a couple losses in a row, we had a “We’ll believe it when we see it” approach to Manchester City. Then, they got thumped 4-0 at home by Tottenham. City has fallen eight points behind Liverpool. Although, even with all the handwringing, and the losses, Pep and company are in second, and if it gets healthier, there’s a good chance that’s the floor.

Before the season, the Gunners were the club most people thought had the best chance to pip Manchester City for the title. There’s definitely a chance Arsenal finishes ahead of Man City, but of course it also has to make up three wins on Liverpool to win the league. It’s a tight race for the top four at the moment, but we liked Arsenal the best of all those teams prior to the season, and nothing we’ve seen so far has changed our opinion all that much on that front.

Chelsea has changed managers over and over and churned the roster to a nearly-absurd degree, and all it has to show for it is incremental improvements. Then again, maybe we should focus on the “improvements” part of that. Powered by the duo of Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, Chelsea is neck-and-neck with Arsenal. Now, we do still think Arsenal will finish a bit better, but Chelsea’s moves do feel likely to lock up a top-four finish, and it is more likely it finishes second than, say, sixth.

After Spurs thrashed Man City it had a plus-14 goal differential, second highest in the Premier League. It also sat sixth in the table. Bad luck? Perhaps, but that also speaks to the mercurial nature of Tottenham. If the club could fire on all cylinders most weeks, it would assuredly be at least the best club in London. We’ve already seen a couple questionable losses, though, and so this is as far as we can buy in.

Oftentimes, one club outside the upper echelon finds itself in the top-four mix, and at least ahead of some clubs with bigger names and larger coffers. Brighton is usually in that mix, though we didn’t expect that this year. Letting Pascal Gross move on and hiring a guy in his early thirties as a manager didn’t speak to being competitive. Instead, Brighton is ahead of Spurs, Newcastle, and Aston Villa for now and we think it’s capable of staying ahead of at least a couple of them.

With as much money as any club in the world, more is expected from Newcastle than it has delivered. Indeed, finishing seventh would not exactly be the end goal for a club with so much wealth on hand. That being said, the Premier League is the toughest league in the world. Newcastle has beaten Spurs and Arsenal, though it’s also lost to Fulham. Even hitting the winter transfer window hard would likely only help so much.

Aston Villa finished fourth last year and made it into the Champions League. That was great for the club, and the Champions League has even gone fairly well so far. Of course, playing in the Champions League also means being stretched thinner. Villa was never likely to finish in the top four again, but it is still comfortably a top-half club.

Forest’s start never felt sustainable. It soared as high as third in the table and even beat Liverpool. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s style is much more indicative of a mid-table club looking to stay out of the relegation zone. It’s hard to play football in that vein and stay in the fight for the top four. Newcastle and Arsenal have recently rolled Forest, and the move down to mid-table will likely continue. Still, after years battling relegation that’s a major improvement.

Brentford sits 10th in our predicted table, just inside the top half of the league. The analytically-minded club also has talent. Two teams have two players in the top eight in goals. Chelsea has Palmer and Jackson, and Brentford has Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa. In the middle of the league, that kind of talent can win out for a club.

Yeah, yeah, Ruben Amorim is in charge now. Man United also drew Ipswich in his first game in charge. This is a mediocre team. After 12 games United was 4-4-4 with an even goal differential. If the club doesn’t suddenly significantly improve, it will be mediocre, and mediocre teams often finish around 11th in the table.

This may be the largest move from our preseason predictions. Figuring Leicester City would avoid being relegated right back down to the Championship, we pegged Fulham as the club to go down instead. Yeah, that won’t happen. Fulham was ahead of United and Brentford after 12 games, but all three of those clubs had even goal differentials, and Fulham is still the least talented of those three clubs. Hey, we had Fulham 18th, and now we have it 12th with no worry of relegation. It earned that for sure.

Bournemouth is the last team in this predicted table we don’t think will be sweating relegation at any point. Mostly that is because of the upside the Cherries have shown. The club has beaten City and Arsenal. Bournemouth has yet to suffer a bad loss. It may not really be as good as Man City or Arsenal, but those six points were not to be expected, and those six points give the club leeway.

Everton hasn’t been dealt any point deductions this year, but the club has said, “Thanks, we’ll just play ourselves into the relegation battle this time.” This is a woeful offense once again. Scoreless draws abound, and Everton is the only club to lose to Southampton. Maybe we’re believing too much in Sean Dyche and Jordan Pickford, but we think the Toffees can avoid the bottom five in the end.

Moyes in? Firing a “do no harm” manager like David Moyes did open the door for things to go pear-shaped for West Ham. If it makes sense, we think it’s more likely that Everton gets relegated than West Ham, but also think Everton will likely finish above West Ham when all is said and done. The Toffees have more variance, but that means more upside.

Well, going on a losing streak and canning Steve Cooper from the managerial position are not factors that make us feel good about Leicester avoiding yo-yoing back down to the Championship. We just felt a club that had gotten used to being in the Premier League, that even won the league not all that long ago, and was only down for one year that was pretty breezy all things considered would end up fine. Technically, we are still predicting the Foxes avoid relegation, but just barely.

Last year, Oliver Glasner took over for Roy Hodgson and took Palace out of the relegation battle and into a 10th-place finish. Those good vibes did not last, evidently. Glasner and company are definitely in the relegation battle. In fact, after 12 games Palace was 19th, one of three teams with only a single win. That being said, thinking back to last year, and also looking at a minus-7 goal differential that isn’t atrocious, we predict Crystal Palace will be the last team to find safety. Maybe they should hire Hodgson back?

There are two teams we feel confident are going down. That leaves one spot. We have Wolves in that spot. After 12 games it was on nine points and just out of a relegation spot based on goal differential. The Wanderers have allowed the most goals in the Premier League. Both of their wins have come recently, but one was over Southampton and, well, you may have noticed you haven’t seen Southampton yet.

Ipswich’s only win has come against Spurs, which speaks more to how much Spurs can flub it up than Ipswich’s talent. It was in League One not all that long ago, and it was in the Championship last season. Sticking around would be a big ask for Ipswich, and it’s already down in the relegation zone.

Southampton is the worst team in the Premier League. Maybe we should have seen that coming? It only qualified for promotion through the playoff, and it has decided to try and play like it did in the Championship. Bad idea. Southampton had four points through 12 games with a minus-15 goal differential. Lock in Southampton to head right back down when all is said and done.