More apprehension than optimism but it’s a must win game for Celtic

A Champions League play-off exit to Kairat Almaty set the tone early, a damaging result that cost Celtic not just financially but reputationally. That disappointment was followed by inconsistent domestic form, and last weekend’s 2–0 defeat to Dundee only deepened the unease.

Add to that a Europa League campaign that’s yielded just one point from two games, a draw away to Red Star Belgrade and a deflating home loss to a struggling Braga, and suddenly, tonight’s meeting with SK Sturm Graz feels like a crossroads.

For Brendan Rodgers, this has become a must-win night. Not for qualification alone, but also for authority, direction, and belief.

Up until recently, Rodgers had largely been shielded from the harshest criticism. Most of the frustration among supporters was rightly aimed upstairs, at a board whose mismanagement of the summer transfer window left the squad short in several key areas, so it wasn’t hard to sympathise with the manager’s position.

But sympathy fades quickly when performances stagnate. The lack of spark, the predictable build-up, and the defensive lapses that have recently crept in, all point to a side searching for clarity. Celtic have looked flat, not just physically but mentally, and when that happens, focus naturally shifts to the man in charge.

Rodgers himself knows the score. He’s been here before. His calm exterior may remain, just about, but there’s an unmistakable sense that this game against SK Sturm Graz will be viewed as a test of whether he can steady the ship before inconsistency becomes a crisis.

If there’s been one recurring theme in recent weeks, it’s the search for balance. Celtic’s shape has felt in flux. The 4-3-3 Rodgers has favoured since his return has at times looked ponderous, too reliant on underperforming regulars, lacking penetration through the middle, and unconvincing out wide.

In both the defeat to Braga and the loss at Dens Park, Celtic struggled to create clear chances. The pattern was familiar, spells of control, but no cutting edge, and vulnerability in transition.

Perhaps tellingly, in the second halves of both defeats, Rodgers switched to a back three. While that offered moments of energy, especially in the second 45 against Braga, it looked unpracticed, lopsided, and it also left Celtic exposed to counters.

That’s why tonight’s opposition complicates things. SK Sturm Graz are precisely the kind of team that could punish a three-at-the-back experiment. They thrive on compactness and fast, vertical transitions. Give them space to run into and they’ll take it. For that reason, sticking to the traditional back four seems the most sensible path, stability first, as the manager mentioned in yesterday’s press conference, and perhaps some risk later, if required.

If Rodgers is to change anything tonight, it will be interesting to see who and where. Several first-choice players look in need of a breather, while others, fringe names or summer signings still waiting for a chance, perhaps deserve minutes to shake things up, but practical options are limited.

In midfield, energy has been lacking. The partnership between Hatate and Nygren hasn’t clicked, and there’s a case for injecting fresh legs or a more physical presence. Engels or Bernardo could tighten that central area and allow McGregor to dictate play rather than firefighting.

Up front, the conversation continues around the wide areas. Daizen Maeda remains sidelined through injury, which limits Rodgers’ options further, though the return of Alistair Johnston at right-back provides a timely boost, offering both defensive solidity and thrust going forward.

That could in theory allow the lack of pace from Nygren to be negated, if Rodgers chose to return the Swede to the right wing. It is either that or Rodgers turns to Yang for energy, which seems unlikely after Sunday’s performance, or Forrest for experience. No easy decision for the manager in an area of the pitch he’s been let down by Celtic’s recruitment this summer.

And then there’s the question of Iheanacho. The striker remains Celtic’s most dangerous finisher on current form, but he’s often looked isolated too. Getting him involved more centrally, perhaps with another attacker playing closer, could be key to unlocking a stubborn Austrian defence.

So, whilst a three at the back formation may be a bad fit tonight, perhaps a slight change to a 4-2-3-1 formation, matching Sturm’s likely tactics, and offering Bernardo or Engels as part of a double pivot beside McGregor, could afford some defensive protection, and allow a No10, either Nygren or Hatate, to support Iheanacho.

The Europa League may not have been Celtic’s ideal destination this season, but it remains vital reputationally. A draw in Belgrade and a defeat at home to Braga have left Rodgers’ side with a single point from six, and anything less than victory tonight would leave qualification looking remote.

But it’s not just about progression. It’s about momentum. A win tonight could lift the mood around the club and reset the narrative before Sunday’s top of the table clash at Tynecastle. A draw or another defeat, though, and the questions about Rodgers’ methods will grow louder, particularly with memories of his first spell’s later stages still lingering among sections of the support.

Celtic need urgency tonight, not desperation, but collective intent. The crowd will be restless if the tempo drifts or if old patterns of slow, sideways passing reappear. The onus is on the players to show reaction, and on the manager to give them the structure to do so.

A back four could still work, provided the wingers stay wide and the midfield presses coherently. The key will be quick circulation and aggression in the press. If Celtic can pin Sturm Graz back early and avoid conceding soft turnovers, our quality could tell. But if we allow the Austrians to settle, frustration could take over, and in the current mood, that’s the last thing Rodgers needs.

It may be only October, but for Brendan Rodgers, this already feels like a defining point in his second spell at Celtic. The excuses that were valid a few weeks ago are losing traction. Recruitment, a loss of pace, goals and creativity from the team all matter, but results do too, and we must find a way.

Tonight isn’t just about staying alive in the Europa League. It’s about rediscovering belief, rhythm, and conviction. Celtic Park expects a reaction. Whether Rodgers and his players can deliver one may well shape the tone for what is shaping up to be a crucial part of the season.

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