Opta Supercomputer Makes Arsenal Huge Favourites Against Burnley Tonight

Originally posted on Just Arsenal | Last updated May 18, 2026 9:45 AM ET

Arsenal supporters will head into tonight’s clash against Burnley knowing that, according to the Opta supercomputer, the Gunners are overwhelming favourites to take all three points at the Emirates Stadium.

As reported by The Analyst, Opta’s prediction model has given Arsenal an 86.9% chance of beating the Clarets after running thousands of match simulations ahead of Monday night’s huge Premier League encounter.

On paper, it is hardly surprising.

Burnley have already been relegated, have won just once in their last 27 league games, and possess one of the worst away records in the division. Arsenal, meanwhile, are chasing a first Premier League title since 2004 and know victory would move them five points clear of Manchester City ahead of Pep Guardiola’s trip to Bournemouth.

Arsenal’s Home Form Offers Huge Encouragement

The statistics surrounding Arsenal’s final home league game of the season also make positive reading for Gooners.

According to the Opta data, Arsenal have lost just one of their last 28 final home league matches and are unbeaten in their last 14 such fixtures.

There is also another stat that will encourage supporters ahead of kick-off, Arsenal have never lost a Premier League match against a side that had already been relegated heading into the game.

Of course, football is never played on spreadsheets, and Arsenal fans will know better than most how dangerous pressure can become during a title race.

The atmosphere inside the Emirates tonight is expected to be electric, but nerves will also undoubtedly be present knowing what is at stake.

Arsenal Must Handle The Pressure

Mikel Arteta’s side have shown tremendous consistency and resilience throughout the campaign, remaining at the top of the table for much of the season despite constant pressure from Manchester City.

Now comes another huge test.

The Gunners know a victory would put the pressure firmly back onto City, while anything less would hand the momentum straight back to Guardiola’s side before they even kick a ball on Tuesday night.

Statistics and supercomputers may favour Arsenal heavily, but the players still need to deliver on the pitch under the lights in North London, with a major injury setback in Ben White’s injury when Jurrien Timber is not yet fully fit to fill the right-back role.

And if they do, Arsenal could move one giant step closer to Premier League glory.

Can the Gunners handle the pressure tonight and prove the Opta supercomputer right?
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This article first appeared on Just Arsenal and was syndicated with permission.

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