Opta’s supercomputer sees one clear winner in Tottenham vs. Leeds United as Spurs gear up for crucial clash

Tottenham can effectively secure survival with win over Leeds as West Ham slip up.

Opta’s supercomputer has handed Tottenham Hotspur a 51.5 per cent chance of beating Leeds United in their crucial Premier League home fixture on Monday, with the data making De Zerbi’s side clear favourites in what has now taken on even greater significance following West Ham’s defeat to Arsenal.

Leeds have been given a 26.5 per cent probability of causing an upset at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with a draw assessed as the least likely outcome at 22 per cent, despite the Yorkshire club having recorded the second most draws in the Premier League this season, with 13.

West Ham’s loss to Arsenal has changed the relegation dynamic

West Ham’s loss to Arsenal has dramatically shifted the mathematics of the relegation battle in Tottenham’s favour. Spurs now have the opportunity to move four points clear of the Hammers with a win on Monday, which could nearly end the survival battle with two games remaining. A four-point cushion despite Chelsea away and Everton at home still to play would represent near-certain safety, and the relief that would generate around the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after one of the most traumatic seasons in the club’s modern history is difficult to overstate.

The context makes Monday’s fixture the biggest home game Tottenham have played all season. It is not merely about three points. It is about the opportunity to end the psychological torment that has gripped the club since the turn of the year and allow De Zerbi to begin planning the summer rebuild with the certainty of Premier League football next season.