Premier League best bets: A Midlands Derby and a South Coast standoff

Some Premier League weekends are omakase feasts: a 10-course sampler of top-level play. Others are simpler, one-and-done affairs, with a few teasers supporting a heavy main course. Matchday 5, this weekend's lineup, is definitely the latter. Sure, games like Crystal Palace vs. Man United and Liverpool vs. Bournemouth will deliver sparkling play and interesting storylines. But let's not pretend like everyone's eyes aren't focused on Sunday's Man City vs. Arsenal clash instead.

We'll cover City-Arsenal, first vs. second, in tomorrow's Game of the Week missive. But as we think about best bets from the rest of the pack, we're focusing in on some unheralded teams instead of the top six. Weekends like this are a great opportunity to check in on other parts of the table. Curious if Brighton is really all that great? Or if Wolves is really all that terrible? This weekend is your opportunity to find out.

Here's what we're following in Matchday 5:

Aston Villa vs. Wolves. This isn't the Midlands Derby with the most fire behind it; Aston Villa's biggest local rival is Birmingham City and Wolves' is West Bromwich Albion. But with Birmingham and West Brom toiling away in the lower divisions, this is the Midlands Derby we get, and it's set to be a fascinating clash of styles. Villa is the favorite, of course, but it's coming off a grueling midweek trip to Switzerland and may be without the injured Ollie Watkins. (Coach Unai Emery says he's OK to play, but Watkins exited his midweek game against Young Boys Bern with a bag of ice strapped to his ankle.) And Wolves? Yeah, it's 18th in the league without a win to its name, but it's famous for pulling off big results against top sides. Just ask Manchester City: Wolves beat it 2-1 this time last season.

We like the idea of an Aston Villa win or draw, but we don't love the odds at -600. So we're balancing that conservative bet out with a wild hail mary: Aston Villa's Jhon Duran scoring the final goal of the game at +600. Duran has one of the best goal-per-minute ratios in the Premier League — only Erling Haaland's is better — and crucially, Emery prefers to use him as a substitute. With Duran's appearance likely coming later in the game, we think backing him to score last might be a great way to find value in this Midlands derby.