Premier League best bets: Friday night's all right for fighting

The Premier League is traditionally a weekend affair, with odd matchdays coming through on Tuesdays and Wednesdays to accommodate cup matches. But in the interest of giving its opening night some extra eyeballs, the Premier League is kicking off its season on a Friday, just like it did last year. Aug. 16 will see Fulham host Manchester United at Craven Cottage to kick off a new Premier League cycle, and we couldn't be more excited to share it with you.

Each week, we'll share two unique pieces: a "best bets" roundup featuring games from across the matchday and a "Game of the Week" deep dive focused on one specific headliner. Let's kick things off with some best bets from Matchday One, beginning with our season opener at Craven Cottage:

Fulham vs. Manchester United, Friday, Aug. 16 at 3 p.m. ET. The 2024-25 Premier League season kicks off with this intriguing matchup between the lovable Londoners and crisis-prone Mancunians. But maybe that crisis isn't as imminent as it has been in recent seasons: Fulham has an awful record against United, winning just two of their 20 most recent clashes. The odds favor United in this one (-175 for a win) and it's easy to see why.

Let's look outside the win-loss spectrum, then, to see where else we can find some value. United midfielder Casemiro struggled at the end of last season but has looked sharper and more aggressive than ever in preseason. With United's other expected starting midfielders —Kobbie Mainoo, Amad Diallo, Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes — more attack-minded than he is, we're backing Casemiro to make greater than 3.5 tackles against Fulham at +110. He managed nine against Man City in the Community Shield last weekend; we think he's a shoo-in for this.

(Incidentally, it's worth keeping an eye on Casemiro as United evolves this season. While he failed to impress on the field in 2023/4, reports from United's training ground say that he's been instrumental in developing Harry Amass and Toby Collyer, two of United's most promising teenage midfielders. If you're wondering why United has hung onto 32-year-old Casemiro for so long instead of selling him for a profit, that developmental instinct may be why.)

Ipswich vs. Liverpool, Saturday, Aug. 17 at 7:30 a.m. ET. Saturday's early match is one worth waking up for: it's Ipswich's grand return to the Premier League after 22 years away. (It's also the league debut of Liverpool coach Arne Slot, making his first stab at the unenviable task of filling Jurgen Klopp's shoes.) Liverpool should win this one handily, but we're expecting Ipswich to benefit from something we call "the Luton effect." Like Luton, Ipswich has a small, unique, picturesque stadium; like Luton, that stadium turns terrifying when it's packed to the gills with screaming supporters. It's likely not going to be enough to turn the game in Ipswich's favor, but it should be enough to help it find a way through Liverpool's defense. We're backing a Liverpool win with at least one Luton goal at +160, and just for fun, we're backing Ipswich hero Omari Hutchinson to score or assist that goal at +300.

West Ham vs. Aston Villa, Saturday, Aug. 17 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Make no mistake about it: we're thrilled about Aston Villa's prospects this season. Will it be hampered by its Champions League run in the same way Newcastle was last season? Yes, probably. But it doesn't matter. Villa's on a fascinating journey and it's made some clever signings to help it stay in the European fight for the foreseeable future. We can't wait to see what Ian Maatsen does; we think the Onana-Kamara midfield pairing is aces.

For all the good vibes floating around Villa Park, though, there's one problem: Villa rarely starts seasons off well. It tends to take a few games to find its footing. Cast your mind back to last season's opening day for proof: Villa suffered the worst defeat of anyone and got hammered 5-1 by Newcastle. With West Ham strengthening its defense under new manager Julian Lopetegui and Villa regular stumblers on opening day, we're torn between backing a draw at +260 or a West Ham win at +150. We're leaning toward a draw, but only just.