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Aston Villa manager Unai Emery (right). PA Images/Alamy Images

Premier League Game of the Week: Arsenal and Aston Villa face off in the Unai Emery Derby

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 4/11/24

Unai Emery was a bonafide superstar when he came to the Premier League. The Spanish coach had begun his career in the sleepy seaside town of Almeria, leading its local soccer team from the mire of the second division to eighth in Spain's La Liga. From there, he took a once-great but cash-strapped Valencia side featuring David Villa, David Silva and Juan Mata and led them away from financial disaster and toward the Champions League. He won the Europa League with Sevilla and traded up to Paris Saint-Germain, where he nurtured a teenaged Kylian Mbappe while winning a domestic quadruple. When Arsenal announced that he'd be replacing longtime coach Arsene Wenger in 2018, it felt like a natural progression. It felt right.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa, Sunday, April 14, 11:30 a.m. ET

Wenger, though, was no ordinary coach, and his departure was no ordinary departure. He'd been with Arsenal since 1996 and led the club through unprecedented highs, including the infamous "Invincible" season in 2003-24. He was a studious and erudite fellow, a man who took his job seriously and his players more seriously still. He was their man. And it's never easy to be the man who follows The Man.

That's the trap poor Emery fell into when he joined Arsenal. The club was drifting away from the Premier League elite thanks to the rise of Manchester City and several years of stagnant tactics under Wenger (something that absolutely affected Emery's tenure even if Arsenal fans don't like admitting it.) The mood at the Emirates was dour the second Emery walked in. His tenure began with an ignominious 2-0 loss to City; English fans, many of whom weren't familiar with Emery's stellar track record, called for his head immediately. He was sacked from the Arsenal job the following November with a full 12 months remaining on his contract. His Premier League future seemed cooked.

But Emery never stopped thinking about England and never stopped hoping for a second, and better, chance to prove himself there. He got his moment in the fall of 2022 when Aston Villa, just a few points outside the relegation zone, sacked coach Steven Gerrard and started looking for a replacement. We'll never know just what Emery saw in the sad, shaky Villa side he took under his wing, but he certainly saw something great, and he led the side from the bottom of the table to the top in a few months flat.

This Arsenal-Aston Villa fixture — one we've taken to calling the Unai Emery Derby — is a measure of just how much circumstance and personality matters when it comes to top-level coaching. Arsenal is a great club and Emery is a great coach, but the two were never a strong fit for each other. These days most Arsenal fans cheer on Emery with fondness. They're thankful he's back in the Premier League and even more thankful that he's not back with them.

As the 2023-24 season draws to a close, this Unai Emery Derby has massive implications for both clubs. If Arsenal loses, it will effectively eliminate itself from the title race. If Aston Villa loses, it will effectively eliminate itself from the race for the Top Four. If the two teams share the spoils, they'll both rue the lost points and will still find themselves in some danger. There's no way for both teams to walk away happy here. Someone — or everyone — is going to get hurt. Unai Emery, with his love and appreciation for both clubs, is bound to be one of those someones.

The stakes couldn't be higher ... but where are the best bets?

Result. Aston Villa won the return fixture in December on the back of a John McGinn goal. Can it beat the odds and win again? Signs point to "no," if only because of Villa's unfortunate circumstances heading into this match. It's playing away from home, which has been a real issue for Villa this season, and it's doing so with two fewer days of rest than Arsenal thanks to its Thursday performance in the Conference League. It's also entering this match without two key members of its midfield — Boubacar Kamara is injured and Douglas Luiz is suspended. It's hard to see Villa controlling the game without them.

Villa still has plenty of firepower, though, even against the odds. Its record against Arsenal in recent years isn't too shabby and it won't be overawed by the occasion. A draw feels tasty at +475; a Villa win or draw feels tastier still at +250.

Teams to Score. Here's the thing about Villa: it's a goal factory. It scores and concedes them in absurd numbers against all kinds of opponents. (It's only kept three clean sheets in the league so far this year and has only failed to score twice.) With that in mind, betting on both teams to score at -125 makes a lot of sense.

Player Tackles. Villa has been fielding a 4-4-1-1 formation in recent weeks to accommodate all of its injuries and suspensions. It's not Emery's ideal lineup, and it has thrown up some unintended consequences: namely, increasing the directness of Villa's attack. Forget about switch balls and wing play: this Villa squad is sending everything right down the middle through McGinn and Watkins.

Arsenal, with its best-in-class central defense, should be well-equipped to handle this. But betting on Arsenal defender Gabriel to make more than one tackle feels like a strong choice at +110. He's going to be caught in the middle of all of Villa's attacks and is bound to take down a few Villans as the game goes on.

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