Premier League Game of the Week: Best bets for Newcastle vs. Liverpool

Liverpool has a solid historical record against Newcastle and a frankly bulletproof one in recent years — the last time the Reds lost to the Magpies was all the way back in 2015. (The goalscorer for Newcastle in that game? Baby Georginio Wijnaldum, who would go on to become something of a Liverpool legend after switching clubs the following season.) And while we must be careful with "historical" records with Newcastle, given how much the club has changed in a year’s time, even the new-look Saudi money Newcastle has struggled against Liverpool. When it lost 2-0 to Liverpool this February Newcastle played a very similar XI to the one it’ll field this weekend — Sven Botman, Fabian Schär, Kieran Trippier, Miguel Almirón, Joelinton and Alexander Isak were all present and correct. The only major addition this time around is Italian midfielder Sandro Tonali.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp was the only coach to beat Eddie Howe’s Newcastle at home and away last season, and he managed it while his team was suffering through something of a confidence crisis. While we don’t have a ton of faith in Klopp’s new-look attacking midfield with striker Cody Gakpo inexplicably dropped deep behind the front line, we do have faith in Klopp himself, and we think he’ll defy the odds and get a result against Newcastle this weekend.

But what kind of result? And how? We'll find out Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET. These are the bets we’re eyeing in this Game of the Week:

Moneyline / Scoring

Newcastle is favored to win this one despite Liverpool (and Klopp’s) recent dominance. That means that a Liverpool win is an enticing bet at +200. But at +375, a Liverpool win with both teams to score is more enticing still. Newcastle is in excellent goalscoring form (it put five past a solid Aston Villa side) and Liverpool’s back line has been leaky (it hasn’t kept a clean sheet since the end of last season.) We think both teams will find a way through on this one.

Goalscorers

Luis Diaz has scored in each one of Liverpool’s games this season, so it’s surprising that his odds as an anytime goalscorer against Newcastle are at +275. He’s considered a longer shot than Cody Gakpo, a man who isn’t even playing in a traditional goalscoring role. Provided he’s recovered from his minor injury against Bournemouth, Diaz isn’t just a reasonable bet: he’s the most likely goalscorer of Liverpool’s front three. Diaz an absolute menace against physical defenses like Newcastle’s, using his relatively small stature to feint past unexpecting defenders. 

Cards

We love Swiss defender Fabian Schär — he’s the perfect combination of graceful and aggressive, and watching him irritate opposition attackers is the great joy of any Newcastle game. Here’s the thing: Schär’s direct opponent in this match is likely to be Luis Diaz, and if anyone can get the better of Schär’s temper over the course of a 90-minute match, it’s him. Schär is at +210 to receive a yellow card at any point in this game; with Dias as his opponent, those are odds we’d take.