Premier League Top 4 race: Who Makes It?

The 2024-25 Premier League season is now coming to its conclusion. One thing is certain, Liverpool are Premier League Champions with four games to spare. But below them, the battle for qualification is still wide open, with several heavyweights and surprise packages all pushing for a top-four finish. This time around, with the Premier League likely to earn five spots in next season’s Champions League due to their UEFA coefficient ranking, the margin for error is a little more forgiving. Regardless, every game feels like a must-win.

At the moment, Arsenal sits in second place with 67 points, looking relatively comfortable. Newcastle United has climbed up to third with 62 points, and Manchester City follows closely with 61. Chelsea and Nottingham Forest are both on 60 points, but Forest has a game in hand, keeping their hopes alive. Aston Villa, Fulham, and Bournemouth are still mathematically in the race, but their odds are low.

According to Opta’s latest data projections, Liverpool is guaranteed a top-five finish (100%), Arsenal is virtually there at 99.96%, and City’s chances stand strong at 94.8%. Newcastle United isn’t far behind at 83.92%, while Nottingham Forest (58.06%) and Chelsea (49.52%) are close in a race that may go down to the final day. Aston Villa’s odds of sneaking in are just 13.72%, while Fulham hangs by a thread at 0.02%.

Arsenal, Newcastle, and City: The Front-Runners

Of course, stats only tell half the story. The remaining fixtures for these sides will be pivotal in determining how this plays out. Arsenal, while not always convincing, has the momentum and a manageable schedule. Their consistency should see them through comfortably. Newcastle, who looked different from last season, has the easiest run-in on paper. They are playing with the fearlessness that could give them the edge in this sprint finish.

On the other hand, Manchester City is battling an injury crisis that has vastly affected their usual dominance. Still, they’re stacked with depth and experience. It would take a major collapse for them to miss out. Their 2-1 win in the dying moments over Aston Villa in their last Premier League game showed glimpses of their capabilities. City are enjoying a good run of form, which will potentially help them reach the final lap.

Chelsea, Forest, and the Europa League Factor

Then there’s Chelsea, a side that’s found some late-season form under Enzo Maresca. With five games unbeaten, you would bet your chances on the blue. However, a tricky fixture against champions Liverpool looms large. Win that, and they could leapfrog into the top four. Lose it, and their campaign could fizzle out. Also, considering they have a tough run in until the end with Newcastle, Manchester United, and Nottingham still to play after Liverpool, they could bet their chances.

Nottingham Forest’s shock 2-0 defeat to Brentford was a blow to their momentum, as they failed to capitalize on the game in hand they had over Chelsea. They still have a chance to turn things around by winning at least three of their final four matches, which could be enough to secure a Champions League spot. Otherwise, they risk slipping as low as 7th. A shocking drop for a team that’s spent most of the season in the top three.

Further complicating matters is the possibility of a sixth Champions League place being handed to the Premier League. Both Manchester United and Tottenham are in the Europa League semi-finals. Should either of them go on to win the competition, that could open the door for one more English side to qualify. As TalkSport reported, “The Premier League is set to have five Champions League spots next season… but that number could rise to six if either Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur win the Europa League.”

Final Prediction: Who Makes the Cut?

Given the unpredictability of this season, it’s hard to make a firm prediction, but here’s how things could shake out in the Premier League. Arsenal should clinch second comfortably. City, despite injuries, are too seasoned not to finish in the top four. Newcastle United have the fixtures and momentum, making them strong contenders for third or fourth. 

That leaves Chelsea, Forest, and Aston Villa fighting for the fifth spot. Aston Villa, despite losing their last game against City, enjoyed a good run of form, winning five on the bounce. However, they would require a Chelsea or Forest slip-up to get into the top five, and as things have been, there’s a huge chance for it to happen. There are an interesting few weeks of Premier League football left, and they are as nail-biting as ever.