Ranking every Premier League manager by job security

We start with a guy whose seat is so cold it has icicles hanging from it. In his first season managing Liverpool, Slot and company won the Premier League title. This is Slot's first offseason where he and the roster decision makers are remaking the squad specifically for him. Basically, unless Liverpool inexplicably finds itself fighting relegation, Slot is safe, and there is almost zero percent chance of that happening.

At this point, it feels like Pep is with Manchester City until he decides to leave (which may be soon). Sure, Man City finished third last season (the horror!), but Guardiola has led the club to six Premier League titles and its first Champions League title. The club would probably have to be worse this year, and then even worse the season after that, for Pep’s seat to get hot.

In 2023-24, Glasner was the manager who stepped in to save Crystal Palace from relegation. In 2024-25, he was the manager who led the club to an FA Cup title. When you lead a club to its first major trophy, you earn a lot of job security. Glasner’s seat is chilly as all get out in the halo of that FA Cup glory, which will last at least one season.

When Brighton opted to hire a 31-year-old manager, we figured the club was in for the long haul. In his first season in charge, Hurzeler helped lead Brighton to an eighth-place finish. That was more than sufficient. We still assume a long-term view from the decision makers for the club, so barring being relegated we think the German is just fine.

Frank is the last of the seats we consider cold. He was just brought over from Brentford to manage Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs finished 17th last season, even if it won the Europa League. It will be easy for Frank to pilot the club to a better league finish. Some clubs are quick to pull the trigger on a new manager, but we don’t see Spurs doing that with Frank unless he’s a disaster. He was able to return Brentford to the Premier League and keep them there for years. It’s very unlikely he’s a disaster.

Emery’s seat isn’t cold, but it isn’t warm either. Cool to the touch, perhaps. He returned the club to the Championship League last season, the first time since the 1982-83 campaign. That actually went well, too. Last year, the club finished sixth, but for Aston Villa that’s not too shabby. We could see the club doing slightly less well in 2025-26, though, and the mercurial Emery hasn’t always gotten along with management at former clubs. We don’t see things turning, but it’s plausible.

It feels weird to see Moyes so high up this ranking, though we’d say his seat is tepid. We could argue that the Everton manager is the neutral seat, and everybody else is either cool or warm compared to his baseline. We’re used to Moyes being embattled, but last season he stepped in for the embattled Sean Dyche and carried Everton away from the relegation zone. He’ll probably get at least one full season, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he got fired. It would be unexpected, but not a stunner.

Santo led Nottingham Forest to a seventh-place finish, but has he set the bar too high? When he took over at the club, he was barely able to get it out of the relegation zone (but he did do it). Maybe we’re too influenced by the time Spurs fired him after a few months, a truly disastrous tenure. Now, Forest isn’t Spurs, but Spurs isn’t Chelsea. His seat is far from warm, but it’s a bit over room temperature.

We haven’t mentioned contracts yet, because a lengthy deal means little to Premier League clubs, but Iraola’s deal with Bournemouth ends when this season ends. We expect the Cherries to be worse this season owing to the losses of Dean Huijsen and Milos Kerkez. That’s not Iraola’s fault, but as they say, firing players is hard, but firing a manager is easy. If things go wrong, Bournemouth may make a move.

We’d call Arteta’s seat slightly warm. It’s not for a lack of success. Arsenal has finished second under Arteta three seasons in a row. This is Arsenal, though. The club wants a title. What if the club decides Arteta isn’t the guy to make that happen? We don’t see him getting sacked during the season, but if Arsenal doesn’t win the title this year, we could definitely see management moving on in hopes of finding somebody to get the club over the hump.

Howe has been successful at Newcastle, and Newcastle has been unexpectedly patient for a club that suddenly got a massive influx in cash. Neither of those things is permanent, though. Eventually, Newcastle’s deep-pocketed ownership could get antsy. Clubs like Chelsea, PSG, and Real Madrid change managers left and right. If Newcastle’s ownership ever flips the switch, Howe is probably out, unless the club is about to win a title. That’s just the nature of the beast.

This is the first seat we’d call properly warm. Andrews is stepping in for Frank at Brentford. He was on the staff last season, but this is his first time as the top guy on the touchline. Andrews’ hiring was a vote of confidence from Brentford, but what if they were wrong? Would Brentford deal with growing pains? Or would they fear the sunk cost fallacy and move on if Andrews doesn’t seem cut out to be a manager?

Silva’s tenure at Fulham has been fine. He’s also been axed by Hull, Watford, and Everton in his career. He took over Fulham when it was a Championship club. What if relegation is in the cards this season? What if relegation happens? Both seem plausible, if not necessarily likely. Silva lacks the track record of many Premier League managers, making it more likely he gets sacked than some guys.

Farke is the first seat we’d call very warm, and he’s the first of the managers from a newly-promoted club. Being the manager of a club that has just been promoted kind of inherently puts you on the hot seat. Farke, who manages Leeds, previously managed Norwich. It didn’t go well for him in the Premier League. If things start to turn for a newly-promoted club, the decision makers are usually quick to pull the trigger on a sacking. Anything to stave off relegation. Farke is highest among the promotion clubs because we think Leeds has the best chance of avoiding relegation.

There are two recent precedents leaving Potter on a rather warm seat. One, he didn’t last a full season at Chelsea, being sacked during the 2022-23 campaign. Two, last season Potter took over at West Ham for Julen Lopetegui, who didn’t last a full season. So, we have a manager who was fired quickly into his previous tenure managing a club that has fired two managers in a little over a year. That’s concerning for Potter’s job security.

We arrive at the hot seats, and Maresca’s seat is hot because he manages Chelsea. The last guy to last over 750 days as manager of Chelsea? That would be Jose Mourinho in his run from June 2013 until he was sacked in December 2015. The last manager to last over 1,000 days? Mourinho in his first tenure with Chelsea. You know, back in the mid-2000s. The only reason Maresca isn’t higher is because Chelsea will probably be really good. Of course, that hasn’t been enough to save managers at Chelsea in the past.

Sunderland is going to be relegated. Well, at least we assume the club will go right back down to the Championship. Le Bris will be managing in the Premier League for the first time. It’s quite likely he gets fired. The odds are it will happen during the season. If it doesn’t, it will almost assuredly happen if Sunderland gets relegated. We only have Le Bris one spot ahead of the last of the managers of newly-promoted sides because Sunderland got promoted through the playoff. Maybe, just maybe, expectations are low enough that Le Bris keeps the job and gets the chance to earn Sunderland promotion again. Probably not, though.

Now, if we wanted a manager to step onto the pitch, we’d go with Parker. He was a very good player. However, his stints managing both Fulham and Bournemouth went quite poorly. We fully expect Burnley to get relegated, but the club probably has loftier goals than Sunderland. Also, given that Parker has failed to succeed at the Premier League level before could lead Burnley to pull the plug on him quickly.

Pereira’s seat is scorching. He stepped in at Wolves last season and managed to avoid relegation, but he was competing against a terrible trio of promoted clubs. Pereira is a journeyman whose prior three jobs were in Brazil and Saudi Arabia. His longest tenure was with a Chinese team. If Pereira isn’t fired during this season we’ll be surprised. If he’s managing Wolves when the 2026-27 season begins we’ll be stunned.

The clock is ticking, and the seat is in flames. Any talk of patience with Amorim at Manchester United feels disingenuous. More to the point, it isn’t deserved. His tenure has been pretty disastrous thus far. Manchester United, one of the most-storied clubs in football, finished 15th in the Premier League last season. Amorim has alienated people at a Jose Mourinho level, but Mourinho would at least win games and trophies. Before the season is over, and possibly before the calendar even turns to 2026, we expect Man United’s brain trust will get wise and sack the overmatched, ill-fitting Amorim.