Ranking the odds of every Premier League manager returning next season

Klopp made this prediction easy on us. He’s a Liverpool legend, and one of the two or three best managers of his generation. Klopp has also already said that he plans to step down at the end of the season to recharge, and possibly to retire full stop. That means, unless he goes back on his announcement, Liverpool is locked into having a new manager next season.

When the season began, freshly-promoted Sheffield United was managed by Paul Heckingbottom. The team was terrible, and Heckingbottom got sacked in December and was replaced by Wilder, who had played for, and managed at, Sheffield United in the past. The Blades are still terrible, the worst team in the Premier League. They are going to be relegated, and the club will likely look to hire a new manager down in the Championship.

Chelsea was not a club known for patience with managers in the Roman Abramovich era, and that has remained true under Todd Boehly. The team has been swirling chaos, and Pochettino was hired to manage the club heading into this season. Chelsea is going to finish in the middle of the table and miss out on the Champions League. Unless Boehly has suddenly learned patience, we kind of expect the club to move on.

Even winning the FA Cup may not be enough to save Ten Hag. At times during his tenure at Manchester United it has felt like the club was turning around, and other times it has felt like he was going to be sacked the next day. What we do know is that United, in spite of having some of the highest salaries in club football, may miss out on Champions League football. We also know that Jim Radcliffe, having bought into the club’s ownership, is running the football operations now. Why wouldn’t he want to hire his own manager?

Once again, West Ham United is going to finish in the top half of the table under Moyes. Even so, fans seem like they couldn’t be less happy with the Hammers manager. “Moyes out!” is as common an utterance in the stands as “Come on, you Hammers!” Will West Ham’s ownership feel the same way? Will it think it can improve at manager this offseason? It’s hard to tune out frustrated fans entirely.

Burnley, like Sheffield United, was promoted prior to this season and has been absolutely awful. So why is Kompany further up this list? Well, he’s famous, and he was a great player. That tends to buy some leeway, even if that doesn’t make a ton of sense. On top of that, though, Kompany was the manager last season when Burnley tore up the Championship. The team may be yo-yoing back down, but we could see Kompany getting another chance to earn promotion. We could also see him getting the axe.

Will Nottingham Forest’s four-point deduction lead to it being relegated? Santo was hired just before Christmas to try and keep Forest in the Premier League. If he does it, he might stick around. English football pays well…at the top level. However, if Forest is relegated, we don’t see Santo remaining with the club. This is a guy who has managed Porto and Wolves. He doesn’t feel like a Championship guy.

Newcastle United, newly rich, has been revamping the roster. Last year, Howe helped lead the club to the Championship League. This season, though, has been a bit of a disappointment. Back in the day, Howe would have likely been safe. The richest of the rich clubs, though, are often impatient with managers. Howe is in trouble, but is out of the “likely out” range.

Luton Town getting promoted was a feel-good story, more so than Burnley or Sheffield United. The expectations were lower around the club, but Luton has had the best season of the three promoted clubs. Now, Luton may also get relegated anyway. Edwards, though, doesn’t seem likely to get fired even if the club is sent back down. Given the chance of them getting relegated, though, Edwards has to be outside of the “safe” range.

De Zerbi isn’t going to be axed. Sure, Brighton may fall short of finishing sixth again, but it will likely finish top half of the table, and definitely won’t be relegated. The question is whether or not De Zerbi takes a job elsewhere, a job at a bigger club. Will a team from his native Italy come calling and poach De Zerbi? That’s why De Zerbi is here in the middle of this ranking. He may be a flight risk, such as it is, for the Seagulls.

Everton is not likely to be relegated thanks to its 10-point deduction being reduced to a six-point deduction. Right now, the club is dealing with some chaos, and Dyche has been the proverbial “good soldier.” It’s unlikely the Toffees will let him go, as Dyche has shown the ability to help clubs punch above their weight in the Premier League. The fact Everton likely won’t be relegated also helps increase the chances of Dyche staying. We can’t see him getting a better job than Everton, which is one of the storied clubs of English football.

Aston Villa will be playing in Europe next season. There’s a shot the club will be in the Champions League. Also, owing to the amount of money the Premier League rakes in, Villa is wealthier than 95 percent of clubs outside of England. It has the cash to keep Emery, who is one of the most respected managers in Europe (if Villa is in the Europa League next year, pen it in to win it all). Will Emery have the itch to move on, though? It is his seventh club since reaching high-level European football as a manager. It feels likely Emery won’t find a better opportunity, but it feels plausible, so Emery returning is a fact we are confident in — but not ultra confident in.

Iraola was hired before the season by Bournemouth. He had been managing at Rayo Vallecano, where he overachieved. After missing out on a chance at Leeds because the Spanish club wouldn’t let him interview, he left of his own accord, because clearly he had a yen for England (and that Premier League money). Bournemouth has been solid. It won’t be relegated. Iraola was hired to a two-year deal. He’s likely sticking around.

Though Portuguese by nationality, Silva has been managing around England for years. He’s had his longest tenure, and his most success, with Fulham. The club is going to finish middle of the table, and for the London squad that counts as a success. If it isn’t broke, for manager and for club, why fix it?

O’Neil did nothing wrong at Bournemouth, as he stepped up to help keep the club from being relegated as an interim manager. When the Cherries were able to get Iraola, though, he was sacked. O’Neil wasn’t out of a job long, though, getting hired by Wolves prior to the 2023-24 season. Wolverhampton beat Manchester City, and it may finish in the top half of the table. After animosity ended Julen Lopetegui’s time with the club, Wolves will likely crave stability at manager, and O’Neil may show loyalty to the first club to give him a non-interim managerial job…until his former club West Ham comes calling.

Wherever Pep wants to be, he will be. If he wants to return to Manchester City next season, he will. The job is his for as long as he wants. The reason he is not at the top of this list is because he may want change. He may crave a new challenge. The dude left Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Klopp is stepping aside. Might his greatest rival follow suit? It’s unlikely, very unlikely, but possible. That’s why he’s fifth, not first.

Frank is the best manager in Brentford history. He helped get them promoted, and he’s helped keep them in the Premier League ever since. It may end up further down the table than expected this season, but Brentford will almost assuredly avoid relegation. This is a club built from the top down with an ethos and an affinity for analytics. Frank has bought into that, and the crew running football operations have bought into him. Also, he signed a three-and-a-half-year extension in January 2022. Brentford wasn’t good enough this season for Frank to likely garner a ton of interest elsewhere, but we also do not see him being fired. That’s not how Brentford rolls.

Glasner was only hired by Crystal Palace at the end of February, when Roy Hodgson stepped down. The club seems nearly certain to avoid relegation. Glasner was hired with a deal that runs through the 2025-26 season. All parties involved clearly envision Glasner being around for a bit. If he’s not, that will be a total change of direction we would find quite surprising.

Tottenham Hotspur was enthused to hire Postecoglou prior to the 2023-24 season. Spurs are going to be in Europe next season, probably in the Champions League. You don’t give up on “Angeball” after a single season, especially when it was a success by any reasonable measure. On the flip side, Spurs are a wealthy London club who can conceivably play in the Champions League any season. Postecoglou won’t do better. He’s going to be around. It’s effectively a lock.

Arteta was captain of Arsenal as a player. The Gunners gave him his first managerial job. He’s won an FA Cup as a manager already, helped guide the club to second last season, and is going to deliver a top-three finish again this season. We can’t envision Arteta wanting any job more than this, and he’s done nothing to lead Arsenal to move on. The closest to a sure thing in terms of managers returning for 2024-25 is Arteta remaining the gaffer for the Gunners.