Real Madrid's Percentage To Win La Liga Revealed By Opta, But Are They No.1?

Opta have dropped its predictions for the 2025-26 La Liga season using data-led simulations. Real Madrid have a high chance of reclaiming the title, but are they ahead of rivals Barcelona?

Real Madrid Second Likeliest To Win La Liga

Opta believes Real Madrid is the second most likely to win the La Liga title this upcoming season, behind current holder Barcelona. The data gave Los Blancos a 32.1% chance of clinching another title, but behind the Catalan side, who have a 46.5% chance.

There's a massive gap in percentage between the two who finished 1-2 during the 2024-25 season. Los Blancos finished just four points behind their rivals, and arguably had one of their worst seasons in the past several years.

Barca have added three players to the team this summer, with just goalkeeper Joan Garcia the only player who could break the starting lineup. Real Madrid have brought in four players, and returned Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao from long-term injuries. Xabi Alonso's team look much stronger on paper, so the gap in percentage seems too high for title-winning chances.

Atletico Madrid is the third likeliest, but sees a significant drop from the top two with an 11.7% chance. The next best are Villareal and Athletic Club, with others having a 0.9% chance or less. Real Madrid's opponents on the opening day have the highest chance of finishing eighth this season.