Tottenham escape route mapped by supercomputer, but it’s dangerously close under Roberto De Zerbi

Opta’s supercomputer predicts if Tottenham will survive relegation.

Opta’s supercomputer has predicted that Tottenham Hotspur will narrowly avoid relegation from the Premier League this season following the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi, forecasting a final points tally of 38 that would see Spurs finish 17th and survive by the slimmest of margins.

Opta‘s data projects West Ham United finishing 18th with 37 points, one behind Tottenham, meaning the two clubs separated by a single point in the current table are predicted to finish the season in precisely the same positions. It is as close a survival picture as the supercomputer could paint, and it underlines just how fine the margins will be between now and the final day on May 24.

Tottenham have been handed a 27.11 per cent chance of relegation, a figure that reflects the genuine danger the club remains in despite the optimism generated by De Zerbi’s appointment. More than one in four simulations ends with Spurs in the Championship, which is a sobering statistic for a fanbase desperate for reassurance.

West Ham’s situation looks considerably more precarious by comparison. The Hammers have been assigned a 57.39 per cent probability of going down, making them the most likely of the current relegation contenders to drop. Leeds United and Nottingham Forest, who have pulled away from the danger zone in recent weeks, carry relegation probabilities of just 6.79 and 8.76 per cent respectively, suggesting the battle will ultimately come down to Tottenham and West Ham fighting over the final available survival place.

Burnley and Wolves, meanwhile, have effectively been written off by the data, with relegation probabilities of 99.89 and 99.96 per cent respectively confirming what has been apparent for some time.

Sunderland clash will be telling

De Zerbi’s first match in charge is the trip to Sunderland on April 12, followed by home fixtures against Brighton and away days at Wolves and Aston Villa. The run-in concludes with Leeds visiting the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium before away trips to Chelsea and Everton on the final day.

Seven games, a 27 per cent chance of the unthinkable, and a new manager given the most pressurised debut of his career. The supercomputer says Spurs survive. De Zerbi must now make sure the data is right.