What challenger to MLS could mean for soccer in U.S.

On Thursday, the USLC made an eyebrow-raising move to further separate itself from MLS. Not content with its status as a Division 2 league, the USLC announced its intention to launch a Division 1 league in 2027-28 to directly challenge MLS. This league would remain connected to the USLC's existing Division 2 clubs and provide an alternate experience for American soccer fans and players alike.

"Today is a defining moment for the USL and the future of soccer in the United States," said league CEO Alec Papadakis. "By uniting people through soccer and bringing Division 1 to more cities, we're not just growing the sport. We're creating lasting opportunities while building a more sustainable and vibrant soccer ecosystem in the U.S."

The USLC's announcement was met with mixed reactions, and rightfully so. It's a controversial move for the U. S. Soccer pyramid that mixes benefits with serious problems.

On the positive side, the USLC's expansion is as clear a sign as any that soccer is exploding in popularity in the United States. Being a Division 1 league isn't as simple as calling yourself one; the USLC will be required to develop higher-quality stadiums featuring a minimum of 15,000 seats for its top-tier teams. 

Because of the USLC's focus on underserved metro areas, that investment will come in cities such as Indianapolis, Albuquerque, New Mexico; Birmingham, Alabama; Oakland and Providence, R.I. — locales that could use the soccer infrastructure.

The USLC's creation of a Division 1 league alongside its existing Division 2 product also opens up the potential for promotion and relegation in American soccer, something MLS has staunchly opposed since its creation in 1996. Promotion and relegation will give smaller teams the opportunity to grow while preventing larger teams from getting complacent. Plus, the arrival of a legitimate alternative league also will keep MLS itself from getting too comfortable.

But the USLC's investment may be coming too early. No team in the league can fill a 15,000-plus-seat stadium now. The league's top draw, California's Sacramento Republic, averages 10,000 fans per game. The rest of the league trails well behind it. 

And while some of the USLC's smaller metro areas will receive a boost from this change, U. S. Soccer requires that 75% of a Division 1 league's teams exist in metro areas of one million residents or more. That means the USLC must put down roots in existing soccer cities — a move that may well split attendance between MLS and USLC and cause both groups to suffer.

Plus, there's a reason why MLS is against promotion and relegation. It's an alien concept to many American viewers, and crucially, it's an alien concept to many American investors, too. MLS owners aren't interested in a league structure that could tank their team's value on the basis of performance. They're more interested in parity and competitiveness across the league, and given how uncompetitive promotion/relegation leagues abroad have become, it's easy to see why.

While challenging the status quo is good in theory, even that hasn't worked out well for U.S. Soccer in the past. Professional soccer leagues have dueled against upstart "alternative" leagues before, and in every case, the fight wiped out both options and left the American public without a single one.

Will this USLC Division 1 league be good or bad for U. S. Soccer as a whole? It's impossible to say at this juncture. But its impending arrival shakes the foundations of American professional soccer. For once, the threat is coming from inside.