Are Daniil Medvedev’s Days At The Top Numbered?

Daniil Medvedev’s Australian Open run came to an abrupt halt at the round of 16 with a 4-6 0-6 3-6 loss to Learner Tien. It marks the fifth straight Grand Slam without a quarterfinals appearance for the former world #1. At just 29 years old, he already looks a shadow of the man who stopped Novak Djokovic’s calendar slam attempt in 2022, and there are now real questions if he will ever return to that level?

Daniil Medvedev Crashes Out of the Australian Open

Last Season’s Slump

Medvedev entered 2026 off the back of his worst season since 2018. His 2025 year-end ranking of 13 was the lowest in seven years and a confirmation of just how much his level had dropped. The Russian exited every Grand Slam at the first round and slumped as low as 18 at the end of September. A surge of late season momentum, including a run to the Rolex Shanghai Masters semifinal plus a title in Almaty, propelled him back into the last 16. Nevertheless, his run of six straight ATP Finals appearances came to an end.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why the downturn happened so quickly. When players do regress, there is usually an obvious explanation. Andy Murray for example never returned to Grand Slam winning heights after undergoing hip resurfacing surgery. Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to struggle due to an easily attackable backhand and a lack of secure coaching.

Dominic Thiem ceased to become a factor at the top end of tennis after suffering multiple wrist injuries. Medvedev’s offers no definite reasons. Nevertheless, 2026 offered the chance for a fresh start and the chance to hit the reset button. Melbourne Park has been a place of success for him, reaching three finals, only to heartbreakingly finish runner-up each time, twice from two sets up.

Coaching Setup Change

Medvedev opted for a coaching setup change after the US Open last year, hiring Rohan Goetzke and Thomas Johansson to replace Gilles Cervara. They hit off straight away, with the 29-year-old vocally appreciating their vision. He said:

“I was kind of sceptical in the beginning…he (Goetzke) hadn’t been on tour for a long time, and usually that’s not a good thing. He analysed my game and said exactly what I felt was not working anymore”.

He added:

“Some (other possible coaches) gave me their vision, and I maybe didn’t like it or it didn’t work out. With Thomas and Rohan, straightaway, I liked what they told me”.

The feel good factor seemed to pay off, with Medvedev winning his first Brisbane International title, losing just one set in the process. It continues the remarkable run of 22 titles in 22 different cities. Although just an ATP 250 title, there were promising signs, including a 6-3 6-2 win over a motivated Frances Tiafoe. 

He kept the momentum rolling, with two comfortable wins to set up a third-round clash against Fabian Marozsan. At one point in his career, making the third round would be a given; this time, it was the first in five attempts. The Hungarian led two sets to nil with Medvedev staring down the barrel of another frustrating loss. Yet, he channelled a five-set turnaround to meet Learner Tien in the last 16.

It was the young American who knocked out Medvedev in the first round last season, therefore offering the world #12 a chance for revenge. Moreover, his comeback win just days earlier was a major moment. Three out of four of his premature losses last season on the Grand Slam stage last season included five-set comebacks from two sets down, only to lose the decider.

A Damaging Loss

Yet, he would ultimately prove no match for Tien. Both by nature are counter punchers, who like to stand far behind the baseline and craft their way to victory. It’s rare to see either go for broke with a flashy winner. Yet, Tien changed this dynamic, positioned on the baseline, showing no fear.

He peppered the Medvedev backhand, using the lefty spin to get him out wide, before changing direction down the line so effectively. On top of this, he took advantage of his opponent’s court position, consistently playing expertly disguised drop shots. 

So much so that after a tight first set, Tien ran away with the tie, winning eleven games in a row. The American would go on to lose to Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals, but without a doubt, has a bright future at the top end of tennis.

Nevertheless, it marked a dark day for Medvedev. This is no longer a temporary slump; the reality is that Medvedev has ceased to be a factor in Grand Slam tennis for a time long enough to question whether it will ever return. The very style of tennis which brought him incredible success and propelled him to world#1, a US Open title and a further five Slam finals looks outdated and ineffective.

Of course, no style by definition goes out of date, tennis is a game of variety, but on Medvedev’s racket, its effectiveness has wavered. 

The Near Future

It leaves him between a rock and a hard place. Does he continue with his defensive style or does he adopt a more aggressive style to return to the top? 

Medvedev told the Express:

“He played great, super-aggressive. Even when I was making good shots, he was making a better shot back. Didn’t find many solutions today on the court, which is rare, and I didn’t feel that many times in my life like this”.

It’ll be interesting to see whether he takes part in the European indoor ATP 250 swing in a bid to build confidence or takes a period off to re-evaluate his game. Either way, it’s sad to say, but his time at the upper echelon seems to be fading.