ATP 500 Beijing Best Bets Including Alex de Minaur vs Bu

ATP 500 Beijing 1/16-Finals

Davidovich Fokina – Ugo Carabelli: 25.09.2025 10:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was at the US Open, where he lost to Rinderknech in the second round in five tight sets. This will be his third appearance in Beijing. Last season in Beijing, the Spaniard lost against Rublev in straight sets.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Ugo Carabelli lost to Hijikata in the opening round in straight sets. This will be his debut campaign in Beijing.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Davidovich Fokina is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better hard-court player than Ugo Carabelli. The Argentine struggled on fast courts throughout his career. We expect Davidovich Fokina to dominate and win easily.

That being said, Davidovich Fokina covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -5.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Alex de Minaur – Bu:
H2H: 2-0

Alex de Minaur has won three of his last five matches. After playing for Australia in the Davis Cup, de Minaur played in the Laver Cup. He defeated Zverev and Mensik in straight sets and set the tone for the upcoming Asian swing. This will be his second appearance in Beijing.

Yunchaokete Bu has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Bu lost to Zhang in the opening round in three tight sets. Last season in Beijing, Bu had a great run. He eventually lost to Sinner in the semifinals in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, de Minaur is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Quality-wise, de Minaur is just too good for Bu. De Minaur defeated Bu twice already this season on hard court in straight sets. We expect a similar outcome in Beijing as well.

That being said, de Minaur covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur -4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Kecmanovic – Mensik: Time TBA
H2H: 0-1

Miomir Kecmanovic has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in the Davis Cup. He defeated Kirkin in straight sets easily. This will be his third appearance in Beijing. Last season, Kecmanovic lost to Griekspoor in the opening round in three tight sets.

Jakub Mensik has lost three of his last five matches. Last week, Mensik played in the Laver Cup. He defeated Michelsen in the opening match in three tight sets. Shortly after, Mensik had no answer for de Minaur.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Mensik is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Kecmanovic struggled with his form throughout the season. Mensik is one of the best young players on the tour. Last season in Vienna under similar conditions, Mensik defeated Kecmanovic in straight sets. We expect a similar outcome in Beijing.

That being said, Mensik covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik -3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365